Aryna Sabalenka ended her US Open preparations ideally by winning the Cincinnati Open. She overcame Jessica Pegula 6-3 7-5, denying the American a 10th consecutive victory. Although there are many worthy women’s singles contenders for the US Open, Sabalenka has established herself as the favorite heading into the final Grand Slam of the year. This article outlines four reasons why that is the case.
Four Reasons Why Aryna Sabalenka is the US Open Favourite
1. Sabalenka’s Decision to Play a Full North American Hard Court Season
Sabalenka was one of several WTA players who withdrew from the Olympics, held on clay at Roland-Garros. 2022 Wimbledon winner Elena Rybakina could not play due to an illness, but world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and the US Open champion Coco Gauff were among the players who did compete in Paris. Sabalenka, worried about repeatedly changing surfaces, elected to skip the Olympics.
Instead, the Belarusian competed at the Citi DC Open the same week as the Olympics. Sabalenka was nowhere close to her best during that tournament or the following week’s National Bank Open. However, getting that match practice helped her thrive in Cincinnati. The players who competed at the Olympics did not get the luxury of being able to settle into the North American hard court season. There is also a risk of those players suffering burnout or physical issues moving from clay to hard courts.
2. Sabalenka’s Incredible Level at the Cincinnati Open
The previous section mentioned that Sabalenka thrived in Cincinnati, but it is crucial to understand how good she was in Ohio. She played Elisabetta Cocciaretto, Elina Svitolina, Liudmila Samsonova, Iga Swiatek, and Jessica Pegula to win the title. That is a challenging route to the title, but Sabalenka reigned supreme at the Cincinnati Open without dropping a set. She dominated all her matches with big serving, taking her return early and power from the baseline. No other player in the women’s game is as devastating on a hard court when her game flows like that. The tournament is on her racquet if she finds that level at the US Open.
3. The Mental Effect of her Straight Sets Victory Against Swiatek in Cincinnati
Sabalenka entered her Cincinnati Open semifinal against Swiatek with a 3-8 head-to-head record. The Belarusian had also never beaten the four-time French Open champion in straight sets. She ended that statistic with a commanding 6-3, 6-3 triumph against the world No. 1. The match was even more one-sided than the score suggests. Swiatek fought admirably to save nine match points from 3-6, 1-5 down, but the final result was never really in doubt.
The courts will not be as fast at the US Open as they were in Cincinnati, which gives Swiatek a better chance against the two-time Australian Open champion. Nonetheless, recording a dominant win against her rival could prove crucial for Sabalenka’s mentality. She has suffered tough losses against Swiatek, including the 2022 US Open semifinal, making her statement victory even more important.
4. Sabalenka Has Been the Best Hard Court Grand Slam Player for a few Years
Sabalenka is the only player to win more than one hard-court Grand Slam title since the 2021 US Open. She defeated Elena Rybakina in the 2023 Australian Open final before defending her title this year. The 26-year-old has also been very close at Flushing Meadows in the last three years. She lost three-set semifinals in 2021 and 2022 and last year’s final against Coco Gauff in the deciding set.
The Cincinnati Open champion will need to overcome any scarring from those close losses. However, two Australian Open titles, a US Open final, and two more semifinals in New York is a better track record at the two hard court majors than anyone in the last three years. Sabalenka winning the US Open at some point feels inevitable. Her momentum heading into the season’s final Grand Slam means she has a great chance of doing it in 2024.
Main Photo Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
