ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati 1/32-Finals
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Carreno-Busta – Korda: 13.08.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 2-0
Pablo Carreno-Busta has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Montreal, Pablo lost against Rune in the second round of the tournament in straight sets. Carreno-Busta showed some signs of improvement in his fitness. He is still playing with his protected ranking. Unfortunately, the injuries have ruined the last two seasons for him. So far this season, Busta has played only a couple of matches. His last appearance in Cincinnati was in 2022, where he lost in the first round against Kecmanovic.
Sebastian Korda has won four of his last five matches. This week in Montreal, Korda reached the semifinals where he lost against Popyrin in straight sets. Korda played solid tennis throughout the whole tournament, but failed to capitalize in the semifinals. A week before that, Sebastian won the title in Washington, winning against Cobolli in three tight sets. Last year in Cincinnati, Korda lost his first round match against Coric in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Carreno-Busta is the big underdog in this matchup. We believe that he is slowly returning to his form. He had a solid match last week against Marozsan. Pablo should be able to keep this match tight.
That being said, Carreno-Busta covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pablo Carreno-Busta +4.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
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Rune – Berrettini: 13.08.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 2-1
Holger Rune has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Montreal, Holger lost in the 1/8-Finals of the tournament against Zverev in straight tight sets. Before the tournament, Rune was still struggling with his injury that he sustained in Hamburg a month ago. However, Holger looked fit on the court. Last year in Cincinnati, Holger retired mid-match against McDonald in the second round. So far this season, Holger is yet to win a title. His biggest result was reaching the final in Brisbane at the beginning of the season.
Matteo Berrettini has won 10 straight matches. The last match Matteo played was three weeks ago in Kitzbuhel, where he won the title, winning against Gaston in the final. Before that, Matteo won the title in Gstaad. That being said, Berrettini has won back-to-back titles. Struggling with the injuries, this was important for his self-confidence. With those wins, Matteo is back in the top 50. His last hard court match was in March in Miami where he lost against Murray in the first round of the tournament. Last year in Cincinnati, Matteo lost in the first round against Auger-Aliassime.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Matteo is the slight favorite in this matchup. He is well rested, and had enough time to prepare for the second part of the season. We believe that he is overall a better player than Rune.
That being said, Berrettini winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Berrettinni winning @1.67 @bet365
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Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
