ATP 250 Kitzbuhel 1/16-Finals
Berrettini – Kotov: 23.07.2024 14:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Matteo Berrettini has won five straight matches. Last week in Gstaad, Matteo won the title without dropping a single set. It was another great clay court tournament for him which got him into the top 50 in the rankings. So far this season, Berrettini has played only eight tournaments, and reached the final four times, winning two titles. Matteo just needs to stay fit, and he will be a top 10 player soon enough. The last time he played in Kitzbuhel was in 2018, where he reached the quarterfinals.
Pavel Kotov has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Bastad, Kotov lost his second round match against Ajdukovic in three tight sets. So far this season, Pavel has played 18 matches on clay, and has a winning 11-7 record. Besides reaching the semifinals in Marrakech on clay earlier this season, Kotov did not have any remarkable results. Kotov won a lot of points last year during the second part of the season, so he needs to step up his level and defend the points.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Berrettini is the big favorite in this matchup. Matteo looked great last week in Gstaad under similar conditions. We believe that he is overall a way better clay court player than Kotov, and that he will win this match easily.
That being said, Berrettini winning in straight sets is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Berrettini winning 2-0 @1.83 @bet365
Tirante – Thiem: 23.07.2024 19:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Thiago Tirante has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Bastad, Tirante reached the semifinals where he lost against Borges, who ended up winning the title. Before that match, Tirante played three consecutive three setters. En route to the semifinals, Tirante won against Rublev and some other solid clay court players such as Carballes Baena. He is looking to get a decent result here to get into the top 100 in the rankings. Tirante spent most of his career playing at the challenger tour level.
Dominic Thiem has lost four of his last five matches. This would be an emotional moment for Domi as it would be his final appearance at his hometown in Kitzbuhel. Last week in Gstaad, Thiem lost in the first round against Varillas as we predicted. Thiem looked once again nervous on the court, as he lacked self-confidence. His last main-draw win was in April when he won against Marterer in Estoril. Last year in Kitzbuhel, Thiem reached the final where he lost against Baez in easy straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this should be a 50-50 match. Dominic Thiem played here in the final last year. However, his form is terrible and he is nowhere near that level. On the other hand, Tirante did a good job last week, so we believe that he will be confident coming into this match.
That being said, Tirante winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Thiago Tirante winning @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
