It’s quarterfinal day at the ATP Houston Open, the only ATP tour red-clay tournament in the United States. Ben Shelton looks to reach his first ATP tour semifinal on the clay while defending champion Frances Tiafoe takes on Jordan Thompson. The other two quarterfinals feature two home Americans battling against experienced and seeded players on the red dirt. LWOT predicts all four quarterfinal matches below.
ATP Houston Quarterfinal Predictions
Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Michael Mmoh
Head-to-head: 1-1
Michael Mmoh snapped a four-match losing streak in his opening ATP Houston win against Juan Pablo Varillas. He looked even better on Thursday, claiming his second Top 80 win of the season to beat Max Purcell. Meanwhile, the defending finalist, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, is adept and dangerous on the clay. He didn’t look too troubled against Daniel Galan in his second-round match, winning 6-4 6-4. Despite a 6-8 record in 2024, this feels like a good opportunity and draw for the Argentinian. A win against Mmoh would mark his first semifinal of the 2024 season, and I feel he’ll claim a spot in the semifinals on Friday.
Prediction: Etcheverry in 2
Marcos Giron vs Luciano Darderi
Head-to-head: First meeting
Marcos Giron comes into this match on a hot streak, taking out both Denis Shapovalov and JJ Wolf in straight sets. His quarterfinal appearance this year is already a step up from his surprising second-round loss to Tomas Machac in last year’s Houston event. Darderi, however, should not be overlooked in this one. He stunned the No. 2 seed Francisco Cerundoloo 6-4 2-6 7-6 (4), with the Italian two points from losing the match deep in the third set. Darderi notably stunned the tennis world this February when he won the ATP Cordoba Open as a qualifier. With 10 wins on the clay in 2024, it’s a stark contrast to Giron’s two wins, with the American playing his first clay court tournament of the season this week. While Giron may be the favorite, Darderi’s youth and motivation as the underdog may result in an upset.
Prediction: Darderi in 3
Frances Tiafoe vs Jordan Thompson
Head-to-head: 1-1
Frances Tiafoe hasn’t had a great 2024 season, making this tournament all the more important for him to reclaim his mojo. He battled through a close second-round match against James Duckworth, winning 7-5 in the third set. Jordan Thompson possesses a style of play similar to James Duckworth’s, so Tiafoe will be prepared. In one of the longest best-of-3 matches of the season, Thompson won in a 3h36 second-round match against Alexandre Kovacevic that ended well after midnight. It could be too tough of a turnaround for the Aussie, especially with Tiafoe having the crowd support and confidence as the defending champion. The pair haven’t played in nearly five years.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 3
Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima
Head-to-head: First meeting
Ben Shelton survived an exciting Wednesday night clash against Zizou Bergs to reach this stage of the tournament. Bergs, who sits at a current career-high ranking of No. 111, pushed Shelton into a close third set. Now that Shelton has passed a major milestone in his clay court career by reaching a quarterfinal, it may give him confidence and minimize his nerves. Brandon Nakashima, while having a good week after two straight-set wins, likely won’t have the weapons and firepower to take out Shelton. Shelton will use his big serve to reach the semifinals.
Prediction: Shelton in 2
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran – USA TODAY Sports
