ATP Indian Wells second round is in full swing, with the first set of seeds seeing their first matches. Several players will be making the transition back to hard courts after the South American clay swing and look to get their footing back. Day 3 is headlined by Jannik Sinner, the Australian Open champion and last year’s semifinalist, who may be the favorite to win the event. As always, we at LWOT have the preview and prediction for all matches. In three separate articles, we have match predictions featuring Andrey Rublev vs Andy Murray, Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi, and Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Constant Lestienne. But who do you think will advance?
ATP Indian Wells Day 3 Predictions
Francisco Cerundolo vs Alexander Shevchenko
Head-to-head: First meeting
This match features two players who each tend to be most comfortable on clay. Shevchenko decided to stick to hard courts in the Spring and had strong results with two quarterfinals and a win over Holger Rune in Rotterdam. Cerundolo lost his first two matches on clay in South American swing but followed it up with a great run to the Rio Open semifinal. This match could truly go either way with plenty of long baseline rallies, especially on a slower hard court. Transitioning surfaces is always difficult, which will play into Shevchenko’s favor. Cerundolo is a decent hardcourt player, but Shevchenko seemed to make strides forward on the surface so far this year. Shevchenko will prevail in a tight match decided by a few key points.
Prediction: Shevchenko in 3
Nicolas Jarry vs Fabian Marozsan
Head-to-head: First meeting
Jarry returns to hard courts after spending time on the clay court swing in South America, looking to build on a good result by making the final in Buenos Aires. He did have disappointing results in the following events, with early losses on his best surface. Marozsan has stuck to the hard courts with generally mixed results, but he is a dangerous player when everything comes together. Marozsan is also best on clay, but his body will be better adjusted as he has exclusively played hard-court events in the build-up. Jarry’s big serve should make the transition back to hard courts easier, but the combination of a lack of comfort and questionable form gives Marozsan a real chance here. Marozsan has the game to take advantage of a sluggish start by Jarry and he will prevail in a close match at ATP Indian Wells.
Predictions: Jarry in 3
Brandon Nakashima vs Jiri Lehecka
Head-to-head: 2-1 Nakashima
While Nakashima won their first two matchups in 2022, Lehecka beat him in Toronto last year and has been on a much higher trajectory. Both were seen as future stars of the tour a few years ago, and Lehecka has proven he belongs with the best while Nakashima has struggled to get over the hump, granted he has dealt with injuries. Lehecka started the year off incredibly well with a title in Adelaide and had a nice run to the quarterfinals last week in Dubai. Nakashima has played mostly on the Challenger circuit this year where he has gained match fitness and confidence with good results. Both players have plenty of power and it should be a fun match, but Nakashima has not recently proven himself against competition at the level Lehecka is playing at. Lehecka did retire from his most recent match with an arm injury, so any lingering pain could give Nakashima a chance, but assuming he is healthy, the Czech will have a big edge.
Prediction: Lehecka in 2
Jannik Sinner vs Thanasi Kokkinakis
Head-to-head: 3-0 Sinner
Sinner has won all three of their prior meetings and took both their matchups last year in straight sets. He is on fire this year, following up his Australian Open title with a dominant run to the title in Rotterdam last month. He is riding a 16-match win streak, all on hard court. Kokkinakis has had a decent start to the year but still may not be fully fit as he retired in Acapulco two weeks ago, though he looked strong in his first-round win at ATP Indian Wells. Kokkinakis has a big game and is a dangerous player, but he simply does not have anywhere near enough to stop Sinner, who will cruise to a win.
Prediction: Sinner in 2
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – USA TODAY Sports
