After an exciting week of ATP action in Bastad, fans will get a treat of an all-Top-10 matchup in the final. This event is one of the only ATP 250 events to feature more than one Top 10 player, and this matchup will be enthralling to watch featuring clay court specialist Casper Ruud and big-hitting Andrey Rublev. Who will prevail?
ATP Bastad Final Prediction
Casper Ruud vs Andrey Rublev
Head-to-head: Rublev 4-2
To make this match all the more interesting, ATP 250 events on clay bring out some of the best tennis of both players. This is especially the case with World No. 4 Casper Ruud, nine of whose ten titles have come on clay at the 250 level. His topspin allows him to grind out less experienced players, and as critics have said, the lack of stern competition has definitely eased the pressure on the Norwegian star. This will be a whole new experience and only the second time he’s played a Top 20 opponent in a 250 final. To get to this stage, Ruud hasn’t dropped a single set. He had to face the very difficult Lorenzo Musetti in the semifinals, and even that match was over fairly quickly in two sets. Ruud won this title in 2021, something that will give him lots of confidence.
Similarly, Rublev had to go through a tricky draw to make it here. His semifinal match against Cerundolo was rather tricky, but his serve helped him prevail 6-3 in the final set. He also went through a controversial quarterfinal against Zverev, days after allegations were made towards the German. Rublev has definitely played more tennis as of late, and it was particularly surprising that he chose to play in this tournament after his second-week run at Wimbledon. However, getting matches in a 250 will definitely help him build momentum in the ATP race.
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This match will definitely come down to who can control the tactics and intangibles better. Both players are relatively equal as far as results and titles; the next step is for either player to break the ATP 500 barrier. Ultimately, I give a slight edge to Ruud only due to his experience at the clay court lower levels. The statistics explain enough, as the Norwegian player is extremely comfortable in these types of situations. Rublev may grab the first set, but Ruud will have enough endurance and stamina to win his 11th ATP title.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
