After Novak Djokovic’s straightforward third-round win over Stan Wawrinka 6-3 6-1 7-6(5), the Serb can check off another box in the realm of record books. Next week will be Djokovic’s 61st Grand Slam second-week appearance, as he’s only lost four times in the first week. Needless to say, Djokovic is the heavy favorite in week two, with his mental strength alarming any opponent in his path. If Novak Djokovic plays his A-game, he won’t lose to anyone, other than a potentially peaking Carlos Alcaraz. Yet, if Djokovic doesn’t bring his best, who could realistically defeat him next week?
Who can Realistically Stop Novak Djokovic?
Fourth Round
Given his phenomenal run in week one, Hubert Hurkacz is in my opinion, the greatest threat to Novak Djokovic before the final. Hurkacz defeated Lorenzo Musetti in three simplistic sets, hitting 16 aces and winning 80% of first-serve points. He also hit 47 winners in his second-round straight-set win over Choinski, silencing the home crowd. Hurkacz’s game revolves around big serves, solid drop shots, and deep groundstrokes that could perplex opponents. Those big serves may help him against Djokovic; Hurkacz fired the third-fastest serve of the tournament at 138 mph (as of now).
Yet, Hurkacz can frequently play inconsistent tennis and doesn’t excel well on break points. If Djokovic can force Hurkacz into errors, it should be over in four sets maximum. However, a great start from Hurkacz may trouble Djokovic. While Djokovic tends to countervail his opponents’ peaking starts, at some point the Serb has to break down after an incredible Grand Slam streak dating back to the 2022 French Open. Another positive for Hurkacz: he pushed Djokovic into a tight four-set match at the 2019 Wimbledon Championships.
Quarterfinals
The quarterfinal round could be less difficult than the fourth round assuming Djokovic moves through against Hurkacz. Andrey Rublev brings out the best tennis in Djokovic, woefully for the Russian. This was conspicuous in Djokovic’s demolition job of Rublev in the Australian Open quarters; Djokovic won 6-1 6-2 6-4. While Djokovic slumped against Rublev on one occasion in 2021, his three wins against Rublev have been noticeably authoritative.
His other potential opponent could be the all-too-strange Alexander Bublik. After Bublik triumphed at the ATP 500 event in Halle, he’s broken the infamous Halle curse and could move through into a first Grand Slam quarterfinal. The key to the Kazakh’s success amounts to his unwavering focus on the court; he hasn’t let up and attempted his foolish and uproarious trick shots. That focus has spearheaded him through some quick three matches, evident in his last quick win over Marterer. In a match against Djokovic, the outcome would probably be very different. Bublik could potentially win the first set, but staying mentally tough for four hours is an arduous task for any player, let alone a player whose weakness is mental toughness.
Semifinals
It’s looking pretty clear that Novak Djokovic’s semifinal opponent will be Jannik Sinner. The Italian can often play some shaky tennis in key moments, rendering him at risk of some potential upsets from time to time. However, getting through three matches with relative ease should help him. His potential opponents are also players with lots of confidence, but they don’t have the mental stamina needed to make a big Grand Slam run. Sinner is also long overdue for a first Grand Slam semifinal.
Djokovic’s quarterfinal win over Jannik Sinner obviously made headlines at last year’s tournament, as it was the hardest task for Djokovic in his pursuit of title no. 7 at SW19. Sinner won the first two sets by hitting countless powerful forehands and using his speed to his advantage. On the other hand, the match was a prime example of the crowd bringing out the worst in Djokovic; yet, it always seemed inevitable that Djokovic would bring out the “mental GOAT” at some point. The match connected to Andy Roddick’s now-viral statement from 2021, “First Novak takes your legs, then he takes your soul.” I expect the same to happen if they meet in the semifinals. As Sinner’s weakness comes down to lapses of inconsistency, any brief dwindle for half a set will make it near impossible for the Italian to win.
Final
The final for Novak Djokovic would certainly attract media attention internationally, with the possibility of the Serb matching Margaret Court’s record of 24 Grand Slam titles. While sixteen players could be Djokovic’s final challenger, it’s increasingly likely that Carlos Alcaraz will be his opponent. A peaking Matteo Berretini could take Alcaraz out, but I can’t see the Spaniard letting up mentally if he makes it past the fourth round. Obviously, this match will be a far more difficult task for Djokovic. It’s also too early to predict the outcome, given both players’ lack of matchplay against top stars. If this match happens, lots of insight will go into whether Djokovic can once again wear the Spanish star off the court, just as he did in the semifinals of the French Open.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
