Ahead of the third Grand Slam of 2023, five Last Word on Tennis writers–-Vithun Illankovan (@VitIllankovan), Damian Kust (@damiankust), Jakub Bobro (@bobrojakub), Jack Edward and Andreas Pelekis (@atp3417) – make their Wimbledon predictions for the men’s singles.
Champion
The player we think will win the men’s singles tournament
Vithun: (2) Novak Djokovic [SRB]
Unlike most people, I do not believe it is a (near) certainty that Novak Djokovic will win Wimbledon this year. This is not because of a lack of acknowledgement for his excellence, but because it feels that winning the most prestigious tournament in the sport is extremely easy for him now. This makes me fearful that an injury, default or other shenanigans will occur, preventing the defending champion (who has not lost at Wimbledon since 2017) retaining his title. However, as such events are difficult to predict and because I cannot see anyone in the draw beating him (without controversy), I am predicting the Serbian to win a record-equalling eighth Wimbledon title.
Damian: (2) Novak Djokovic [SRB]
If you’re going for anyone else here, you’re just trying to be different. He’s won the last four editions of Wimbledon and was only really pushed to the brink by Federer and Nadal, who are out of the picture right now. It’s so hard to grab enough experience on grass with how short this part of the season is. Djokovic has it all and it feels like Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev could be a year or two away from proving to be serious threats to him in London. Potential issues along the way to the final? Maybe only Hubert Hurkacz in the fourth round?
Jakub: (2) Novak Djokovic [SRB]
Favourite for me before the draw was made and doubly now that we know the seven-time champion’s road to a fifth straight title. Djokovic opens against clay-court specialist Pedro Cachin, then Jordan Thompson or Brandon Nakashima, with Emil Ruusuvuori the toughest potential third-round opponent. The Serb will get a chance to play himself into a rhythm and though a couple of potentially tricky opponents loom in the quarterfinals if they play their best (Alexander Bublik and Nick Kyrgios), I don’t see anyone beating Djokovic here.
Jack: (2) Novak Djokovic [SRB]
Everyone will have Novak Djokovic down as their men’s singles champion and rightly so. Besides not having lost here since 2017, the Serb’s game on paper is perfect for the modern grass-court game—he can place his serve immaculately, his transition game is probably the best in the top 10 and it’s only a matter of time before he breaks you on the quickest surface on tour. Alcaraz will surely make a few tweaks here and there to catch up in the future but, for now, Djokovic is the man to beat at Wimbledon.
Andreas: (2) Novak Djokovic [SRB]
It’s hard to deny that anyone is better than Novak Djokovic at the moment. His win at the French Open not only exhibited his mental superiority, but his groundstrokes were impeccable and blew players off the court, something many have said he’s lacked recently. He’s notably upped the aggression on his serve and forehand, something that will absolutely benefit him on the slick grass courts. His draw isn’t too difficult either; Hurkacz, Rublev, (and maybe a healthy Kyrgios) are outwardly the only players that could beat him in his half if Djokovic is off.
And if Djokovic plays solid tennis, his real difficult adversary would be Carlos Alcaraz in the final, who’s adapted well to the grass courts this season. Given Alcaraz succumbed to pressure in the semifinals of the French, it could be an even greater challenge to mentally overcome nerves in a blockbuster Wimbledon final against Djokovic. With that, look for the Serb to keep breaking records, and win his 24th Grand Slam title this fortnight.
Dark Horse
Which (other) player outside the Top 8 seeds will go furthest in the men’s singles?
Vithun: (22) Sebastian Korda [USA]
Korda has claimed he is one of the favourites for the Wimbledon title and we are in an era where many of the younger players are not comfortable on grass (as they are specialising on hard and clay courts where most tour ranking points are awarded), that may not be such a delusional claim. Having reached the semifinals at Queen’s (losing to the eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz), he has the match practice required for a deep run. Therefore, I am predicting the American to reach the last eight at this year’s Wimbledon, just as he did at the Australian Open in January (which was his best Grand Slam run to date).
Damian: (22) Sebastian Korda [USA]
The Korda we saw at the beginning of the year was (almost) back in Queen’s Club. He’s done really well to cover up all the flaws in his game and even when that wasn’t the case yet, he already made a Wimbledon run in the past. That section with Tsitsipas and Norrie as the higher seeds just sounds pretty fragile and Korda would be my pick to make the quarterfinals there. Once he actually gets there, would there be potential for more? Absolutely.
Jakub: (-) Andy Murray [GBR]
As an unseeded player, Andy Murray could not have asked for much of a better draw here. The two-time champion opens against wildcard Ryan Peniston before facing one of two struggling stars in Stefanos Tsitsipas or Dominic Thiem. After that, a third round against Wimbledon first-timer Ben Shelton or a struggling Maxime Cressy is pleasant. After that, Murray will likely have to beat Cam Norrie or Sebastian Korda to reach the quarterfinals but if Daniil Medvedev takes an early exit (maybe against Adrian Mannarino), seeing Andy Murray in the final four could be plausible.
Jack: (-) Andy Murray [GBR]
This is the first Slam in a long, long time where I’ve felt really good about Andy Murray’s chances. A relatively easy opener against Ryan Peniston should be followed by Stefanos Tsitsipas and Ben Shelton. Murray will know how to take advantage of the former’s grass-court weaknesses and has always been sublime against big servers at Wimbledon. Most importantly, the two Challengers he won previous to Queen’s suggests he has the form to keep his service games ticking along. Sebi Korda could be a problem but if Murray makes it to the fourth round, he’ll be raring to go.
Andreas: (-) Andy Murray [GBR]
This pick may be a bust given his difficult draw, yet a prime Andy Murray certainly has the game and vengeance to go deep in his historically best tournament. Murray’s organisation all season has led to these forthcoming weeks, with the Brit notably pulling out of the French Open in order to prioritise Wimbledon. With sceptics arguing father-time is catching up, he’ll be fired up for this tournament, all while the crowd certainly will be as well. Reminiscent of last year’s drama filled Kyrgios v Tsitsipas match, a Murray v Tsitsipas match in Round 2 this year very likely could rattle Tsitsipas, just as Kyrgios and the crowd did to him. If Murray can get past that match, he may be a lock for the quarterfinals (and potentially more). No matter his final result, following Murray this tournament will be one of the most exciting storylines.
Men’s Early Exit
Which Top 8 seed will be eliminated earliest in the men’s singles?
Vithun: (5) Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE]
Recently Tsitsipas has seemed more focused on his new girlfriend (WTA player Paula Badosa) than on his tennis, so it is unsurprising that he comes into the tournament with a 1-3 record in the grass-court warm-up events. He is also due an early Grand Slam exit as he reached the quarterfinals (or better) at the last two events and has never made three consecutive major quarterfinals in his career. Given the circumstances, I feel that the Greek would be unlikely to emerge victorious in a likely second-round meeting with two-time Wimbledon champion Andy Murray, making him the logical choice for my early exit pick.
Damian: (5) Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE]
Easy pick would be to go with Ruud given he clearly didn’t really bother to prepare for the Slam on his least favourite surface in the best way possible, but his draw is actually kinda nice for the first few rounds. The warm-up events didn’t go smoothly for Tsitsipas and his grass game is suspect with less time to set up for the backhand, poor slice, and return issues. Murray in round two is one of the most dangerous floaters. If the two-time Wimbledon champion can’t do it, Shelton or Cressy will probably serve him out of the tournament.
Jakub: (5) Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE]
I predicted only three or four of the top eight seeds to reach the quarterfinals here but the one most primed for an upset is certainly Stefanos Tsitsipas. The fifth seed has managed to get past the first three rounds just once and has struggled more than ever in the grass lead-ups, going 1-3. The Greek plays Dominic Thiem, who is also severely out of form but we could see him step up to the plate here and trouble Tsitsipas. With Andy Murray looming in the second round though, it is tough to imagine Tsitsipas coming through the early rounds here.
Jack: (5) Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE]
There are numerous seeds that don’t play on grass to their full potential. Stefanos Tsitsipas, however, really struggles on that backhand return. He’s only won 15% of his return games on the surface throughout his career, significantly lower than every other member of the top 10. If Murray doesn’t get him, Shelton probably will.
Andreas: (5) Stefanos Tsitsipas [GRE]
The Greek has a rather unremarkable 53.1% win record on grass, and his 2023 grass season has been the bottom of the barrel so far in his career. Coming into Wimbledon with a 1-3 record on grass this season, his mental strength has vanished in big moments, and his backhand has been widely inconsistent. It’ll be interesting to see how Tsitsipas fares against a similarly dreadful Dominic Thiem in the first round, yet the ultimate popcorn match against Murray will be the end for the Greek if he doesn’t fix some of his weaknesses. If the Greek can get past Andy Murray, Norrie’s consistent tactics may force Tsitsipas into a disorderly collapse in the fourth round, not to mention the difficult home crowd he’ll have to face for a second time if that matchup were to occur.
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
