Analyzing Novak Djokovic’s Draw at the Rome Masters

Novak Djokovic US Open

Novak Djokovic will make his return to the clay courts in Rome, where he will try to defend the title.

Djokovic has won six Rome titles, bested only by Rafael Nadal, who has won 10 but won’t feature at this year’s event because of injury.

Novak Djokovic’s draw in Rome, Alcaraz on the other side

The world No. 1 received a bye in the first round because of his seeding. He will face either Luca Van Assche (France) or Tomas Martin Etcheverry (Argentina) in the second round.

Djokovic faced Van Assche a few weeks ago at the Srpska Open, where he defeated the Frenchman after a gruesome battle (67 63 62). He has never played against Etcheverry.

The second round should be no problem for a possibly fresh Djokovic, but the third round might be a classic.

A match between Stan Wawrinka and Djokovic is always a sight to behold, but the three-time Grand Slam winner might not make it that far. He first has to beat Ilya Ivashka, and then Grigor Dimitrov.

The Serbian might have his hands full either way but will be the favorite nevertheless. He beat the Bulgarian 10 out of 11 times, and “Stan The Man” 20 times out of 26 duels.

His projected rival in the fourth round is Alex De Minaur or Cameron Norrie.

We can guess that the World #1 is hoping to get another shot at De Minaur, who he destroyed at this year’s Australian Open (62 61 62) in their only match. Norrie shouldn’t be that much of a problem either–the Serb defeated him both times they met (Wimbledon 2022 and ATP Finals 2021).

Projected in the quarterfinals is Felix Auger-Aliassime or Holger Rune.

The possibility of the Canadian “slipping” earlier is always there, but what is interesting is that Djokovic has lost to both of these players.

Auger-Aliassima beat him at last year’s Laver Cup (yeah, that counts now in the official H2H..), but Djokovic eliminated him from Rome a year ago (75 76).

Rune will probably be the tougher opponent if he gets to quarters with the way he’s playing. Rune succumbed to the World No. 1 at the 2021 US Open but then surprised him at the Paris Masters in 2022–in the final, nonetheless.

Semifinals and finals of Rome Masters

It is way too early to predict who Djokovic might face in the final stages of the tournament. Pretty much everyone of higher stature is playing, except for Nadal.

The important thing to note is that he can’t play against Carlos Alcaraz and Stefanos Tsitsipas before the final, and the projected opponent in the semis is either Casper Ruud, Jannik Sinner, or Karen Khachanov.

Will Novak Djokovic win the Rome Masters 2023?

Djokovic hasn’t looked good since the start of the clay season. He lost early in Monte Carlo to Lorenzo Musetti, and then he had a shocker against Dusan Lajovic in Banja Luka.

He hasn’t looked comfortable on clay yet, and he wasn’t afraid to admit it during numerous press conferences, but that isn’t something that should worry his fans too much. Novak is notorious for needing more time to adjust to clay than the other surfaces.

For all the neutral fans, we can only hope that we will get the Djokovic–Alcaraz final since it’s the first tournament of the year in which they are both in the draw.

Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports

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