ATP Miami Final Prediction

Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev

Head-to-head: Medvedev 5-0 Sinner

Is this the big Sinner breakthrough? It very well could be and winning on Sunday would cement it. While he has beaten Alcaraz before, taking him out in the semifinals here feels bigger than when he eliminated him at Wimbledon or in the Umag final last year. Sinner is a former Miami runner-up and has been absolutely perfect in this event so far, only dropping more than four games in a set to the aforementioned Alcaraz.

Medvedev was runner-up in Indian Wells, which was a good result given he constantly talks about how much he hates the courts there. His final showing was extremely disappointing though, but he’s way more in his element here. His win/loss record for the year is now at an unbelievable 28-3, including 23 wins in his last 24 matches. Compared to Sinner, his path in Miami has lacked a bit in the quality of the opposition. Like the Italian, he’s dropped one set in the semifinals (to Karen Khachanov).

This is the first time Medvedev and Sinner will meet not on indoor hard courts. In five encounters, the Italian managed to take a set three times, but has only really been close to a win once (ATP Finals 2021). It’s been a very nice matchup for the 2021 US Open champion as Sinner doesn’t really have the variety of someone like Alcaraz and can’t punish his defensive positioning as the Spaniard did in Indian Wells.

In Rotterdam in February, the 21-year-old managed to take the first set against Medvedev but then run out of gas. Is this a great chance for him to get over that hurdle and grab a first win in this matchup? Yeah and he looks completely ready for it. The question is whether he’ll deliver, because it’s going to be one of the biggest matches of his life (if not the biggest) and he’s playing an opponent he’s never beaten and doesn’t match up that well against.