Day 3 at the ATP Masters 1000 in Miami is absolutely stacked. On the line-up, we have four Top 50 players all up against stiff competition, including recently crowned Indian Wells champion Carlos Alcaraz against lefty Facundo Bagni–and a rematch from Indian Wells, Emil Ruusuvuori versus Roberto Bautista Agut. As always, we’ve tried to predict the outcomes of these matches. We split up Friday’s matches between four articles. The other three feature Casper Ruud vs Ilya Ivashka, J.J. Wolf vs Andrey Rublev, and Marton Fucsovics vs Holger Rune.
ATP Miami Day 3 Predictions
Alexei Popyrin vs Botic Van De Zandschulp
Head-to-head: Van De Zandsculp 1-0 Popyrin
Alexei Popyrin is getting closer and closer to proving himself worthy of the ATP Tour. Though he sits down at #93 in the world, a huge win against Taylor Fritz at the Australian Open showed his game can be difficult for anyone to live with at his best.
Meanwhile, Botic Van De Zandschulp’s year has been relatively lackluster. Perhaps the foot injury that caused him to withdraw against Ilya Ivashka at Indian Wells and the Davis Cup earlier in the season is causing him more issues than he’s let on. We make it about even but will give the edge to Popyrin as the slightly more reliable of the two in terms of health.
Prediction: Popyrin in 3.
Jan-Lennard Struff vs Grigor Dimitrov
Head-to-head: Dimitrov 4-2 Struff (all levels)
Ever the consummate professional, Jan-Lennard Struff has officially fought his way back into the top 100 with his win over Fabio Fognini. An injury halted the veteran’s progress but he’s getting close to his best level–and at his best, Struff is extremely dangerous, winning a decent 27% of his top 10 clashes.
There’s no reason why this match against Grigor Dimitrov shouldn’t be extremely close, especially given the former world #3 hasn’t historically performed well in Miami (he’s lost his last three matches here). We’ll trust in Struff’s big match play here.
Prediction: Struff in 3.
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Emil Ruusuvuori
Head-to-head: 1-1
This is probably the popcorn match of the day. Emil Ruusuvuori has been knocking on the door for a long time but hasn’t quite been able to string together multiple big wins in a row. The Finn’s time will surely come–his game is huge with that forehand doing the lion’s share of the damage in his matches.
Could it happen here? Ruusuvuori beat Bautista Agut as recently as last week but the conditions will make a difference. Ruusuvuori should be able to make his game work in most conditions with that forehand but Bautista Agut can get unstuck when the ball is as slow as it was at Indian Wells. The Spaniard will be in his element here and will be hungry for revenge.
Prediction: Bautista Agut in 3
Carlos Alcaraz vs Facundo Bagnis
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 3-0 Bagnis (all levels)
Does Facundo Bagnis have a chance here? There are two factors going his way–the Sunshine Double has historically been very hard to achieve and being a lefty gives him more of a chance of winning if Alcaraz doesn’t hit the ground running (easier to keep the ball in awkward spots in the court, Bagnis’ forehand cross-court to Alcaraz’ backhand).
That’s all Bagnis can really count on though as he doesn’t have the weaponry or movement to hurt Alcaraz on a normal day. Though the change in conditions could be jarring, the phenom will likely go into this match respecting Bagnis’ game. Perhaps the sets will be close but we’ve got to go for the world #1 in straights.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 2.
Main Photo Credit: Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK
