The altitude at ATP Madrid Open is having its effect as always with some players panting hard through the thinner air. The balls are certainly flying as well with some big serves coming down and some players struggling with their topspin shots going long. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our prediction for every third-round match on the slate, including Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray. But who will reach the quarterfinal stage?
ATP Madrid Day 5 Predictions
Hubert Hurkacz vs Dusan Lajovic
Head-to-head: Hurkacz 2-0 Lajovic
Hubert Hurkacz had a very poor clay court record ahead of this swing, but the Pole is certainly putting in the work to improve that. This tournament is likely to be his best shot at a clay-court Masters title with the altitude helping his serve and powerful groundstrokes. Dusan Lajovic, meanwhile, is recovering from a very poor last twelve months. He is carrying a losing record for the season but has won four in a row here after coming through qualifying.
His last win, over Casper Ruud, was as a massive underdog and was built on a solid serve – the Serbian has held 89% of his service games across his time in Madrid. As a result of the serves of both men, expect at least one tiebreak here. Obviously whoever wins it will have a huge advantage and the winning form that Hurkacz has shown all season must put him in pole position mentally at the key moments.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 2
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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner
Head-to-head: first meeting
It is quite surprising that this will be the first time that these two young stars have played against each other. One would expect this to become a regular occurrence in the future of the game. In this first encounter, Jannik Sinner must surely be accounted the favourite. After all, the Italian has a notably more more impressive clay-court record. He has a 69% winning record so far, with Felix Auger-Aliassime at a comparatively paltry 47%. This advantage has been built upon a much more successful return game from Sinner, averaging a 5% better win percentage than the Canadian is this area and, ultimately, should be the difference.
Prediction: Sinner in 2
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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Grigor Dimitrov
Head-to-head: Tsitsipas 3-1 Dimitrov
From not looking all that comfortable in the hard court swing Stefanos Tsitsipas has really hit the ground running in the clay-court swing. That is hardly a surprise. Tsitsipas may have made a poor start to the season, but the Greek’s game is so well suited to this surface that has a real chance at every clay-court tournament he enters.
Dimitrov is showing that his game is pretty well suited to the surface as well of late. The Bulgarian is 30 now, but is playing some of his best clay-court tennis of his career. The problem is that when he comes up against the best, Dimitrov continues to fall short. Including in Barcelona only last week which was a very comfortable straight sets victory for the Greek. This will probably be the same outcome, if closer because of the conditions.
Prediction: Tsitsipas in 2
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Rafael Nadal vs David Goffin
Head-to-head: Nadal 5-2 Goffin
Four of their previous matches have taken place on clay and Rafael Nadal has won all of them, dropping only one set along the way. That said, David Goffin does appear to be recovering from a long, poor spell that has seen him drop way down the rankings for a player of his ability. The obvious problem is that Nadal looked in excellent touch against an in-form Miomir Kecmanovic in the opening match so there is little chance that Goffin will be able to penetrate the Nadal defences here, and just as little chance that Nadal will give up enough errors to gift the Belgian the victory.
Prediction: Nadal in 2
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