We arrive in the fourth round of the 2022 ATP BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California. World No. 1 Daniil Medvedev has been eliminated, but there are still a few title favorites in the top half. That includes Rafael Nadal (still unbeaten for the year) and perhaps Carlos Alcaraz (10-1 in 2022). Who do you think will make the quarterfinals?
ATP Indian Wells Day 7 Predictions
Gael Monfils vs Carlos Alcaraz
Head-to-head: First meeting
Gael Monfils made the stunning upset over World No. 1, Daniil Medvedev, in the third round, which as a part of a bigger trend is another showcase of the Frenchman’s return to form this year. Carlos Alcaraz might be playing too well at the moment though. The youngster has only lost one of his last sixteen matches, including a 10-1 win/loss record this year. He gave his compatriot Roberto Bautista Agut just two games in an absolutely stunning display. The raw attacking style of the Spaniard can still falter at times and Gael Monfils is among the best defenders on the circuit. It’s really looking like the potential of the 18-year-old is basically unlimited though.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Cameron Norrie vs Jenson Brooksby
Head-to-head: First meeting
This will be a very exciting baseline battle. The defending champion, Cameron Norrie, clearly enjoys the conditions in the desert, while Jenson Brooksby is coming off what could very well be a breakout win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. Both are considered very unpleasant to face with Norrie’s flat backhand and Brooksby’s phenomenal retrieving skills and a technique that’s just as unique. This really feels like a match-up that will depend on the form of the day and whoever performs better in crucial moments. However, if Brooksby’s groundstrokes are just as tuned in as in the latter half of the match against Tsitsipas, he might have a slight edge here. Support from the crowd will be an asset too.
Prediction: Brooksby in 3
Jannik Sinner vs Nick Kyrgios
Head-to-head: First meeting
Nick Kyrgios has definitely found some motivation here. The Aussie was looking brilliant in his first three rounds, dispatching Sebastian Baez, Federico Delbonis, and Casper Ruud in straight sets. It’s a well-known fact that playing his best, Kyrgios can beat practically anyone. Jannik Sinner struggled with dizziness in his match against Benjamin Bonzi, drinking a Pepsi on one of the changeovers, while getting treated by the physio. It doesn’t have to mean anything in regards to his next match, but it creates just enough doubt in my mind that allows me to trust Kyrgios to produce another upset.
Prediction: Kyrgios in 3
Rafael Nadal vs Reilly Opelka
Head-to-head: Nadal 1-0
Now 17-0 for the year, Rafael Nadal is having his best-ever start to a season. Sebastian Korda led 5-2 in the deciding set and still couldn’t put the Spaniard away. He’s since gotten more used to the Indian Wells conditions and will be getting even more deadly. Playing big servers is never easy, but for what it’s worth, Nadal seems to be dealing with them quite well, making up for his return position with the sheer heaviness of the topspin. The Spaniard has never lost to Ivo Karlovic and was only defeated by John Isner in a Laver Cup tie, which was retroactively counted towards the official head-to-head records. Reilly Opelka lost to Nadal in Rome last year and while the Indian Wells courts give him a much better chance, the 21-time Grand Slam champion has to be considered the favorite ahead of this one.
Prediction: Nadal in 2
Main Photo from Getty.
