ATP Vienna Final Prediction

Head-to-head: Zverev 5-1 Tiafoe

Frances Tiafoe was in the middle of a rather subpar season, before suddenly picking up form at the Nottingham Challenger in June. Since then, the American has won 27 matches, losing just 12. What’s more, Tiafoe is 4-1 against top 10 players in that time frame, owning wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, and Denis Shapovalov. The 23-year-old had to qualify to make the main draw in Vienna and dropped sets against both Alex Molcan and Lukas Miedler. Incredibly, he’s managed to go up a gear later in the week and scored a series of upsets against Tsitsipas, Diego Schwartzman, and Jannik Sinner. His point construction and taking advantage of short balls have been absolutely masterful.

Standing between him and the biggest title of his career will be Alexander Zverev. The German has also had an incredible post-Wimbledon push, taking titles at the Olympics and Cincinnati. He’s 24-2 in his last 26 matches, only losing to Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz. Zverev enjoyed a slightly easier draw to the final, but in a draw as stacked as the 2021 Erste Bank Open, nothing will come easy for you, even if you’re one of the best three hard court players in the world right now. The 24-year-old was pushed to deciding sets by Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur, but always produced the goods when it mattered.

Zverev leads the head-to-head 5-1, winning their only indoor meeting at Paris three years ago (6-4 6-4). The German has been a lot more solid than his opponent and has that neutral gear that he can turn to when his timing isn’t clicking. It’s a lot more all-or-nothing with Tiafoe and it shows in how his recent matches went – he almost lost a set from 5-1 up against Schwartzman (7-6), before defeating Sinner from 3-6 3-5 down in the semifinals.

The German has been in much bigger finals before and he is also way less likely to be fazed by the opportunity. On the other hand, everyone is expecting him to raise the title and that pressure will be on him. The crowds tend to like Tiafoe’s game, who is the kind of player who lives off the energy from the audience. If he can keep himself pumped, he won’t be without a shot.

But after all, Zverev has been incredibly dominant on hard courts in recent months. He truly belongs to the modern trend of tall big-servers with excellent movement and can adapt so well to the opponent. The balance between playing aggressively and allowing the rival to take the initiative used to be his weakness. It looks as though he’s managed to perfect it in recent months, making himself a very tough out for everyone on the ATP Tour.