One of the semifinals at the ATP Belgrade Open was perhaps the best tennis match we’ve seen this year, while in the other one the favourite dismissed his opponent comfortably. Will energy levels be important in how the championship match plays out? Who will win the title on Sunday?
ATP Belgrade Open Final Prediction
Aslan Karatsev vs Matteo Berrettini
Head-to-head: first meeting
When the tour restarted in August last year, Aslan Karatsev was situated 254th in the ATP Rankings. But he came out of the blocks quickly, playing some superb tennis at Challenger-level. Still, all good runs have to come to an end at some point. All except this one it would seem. Karatsev is now an Australian Open semifinalist and the Dubai champion. And he is still breaking new barriers. In Melbourne, Karatsev was beaten in straight sets by the eventual champion Novak Djokovic, but gave a good account of himself.
Three months later, he avenged that defeat against the world #1 on the clay in his backyard of Belgrade, winning a match that will surely feature in most ‘best matches of the year’ lists. Any concerns his game on the clay might not be so easy to transfer from the Challenger Tour to ATP-level turned out to be misplaced, with Karatsev clearly a force to be reckoned with.
Matteo Berrettini, meanwhile, finished 2020 without having beaten a top-30 opponent all year. His ranking only remained so close to the top thanks to the changes adopted to the ranking system in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. But the Italian has been playing much better tennis this season, having picked up four top-20 wins in just five events played so far this season. His clay-court campaign did get off to something of a false start in Monte Carlo, but he has been absolutely excellent at the ATP Belgrade Open.
He has picked up wins over Filip Krajinovic, Marco Cecchinato and Taro Daniel, dropping just one set in the process. In fact, he was only broken once. This will be his first meeting with Karatsev, but looking at their respective style of play, a battle for baseline dominance looks to be in the offing.
As trivial as it may sound, Karatsev should have a huge advantage because of his ability to hit through the ball consistently off both wings. Berrettini, in contrast, is much more reliant on his serve and his backhand is a vulnerability that can be exposed in prolonged rallies. On top of that, the Russian’s superior timing will make it even harder for Berrettini to stay on top of the exchanges.
Prediction: Karatsev in 3
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