The focus of the world is still on Rafael Nadal’s 13th triumph at Roland Garros. But tennis never sleeps and there are three main tour events to be played this week. One is the St Petersburg Open, upgraded to an ATP 500 category this year. There are five matches on day one and we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate. But who do you think will reach the second round in Russia’s second city?
ATP St Petersburg Open Day One Predictions
Egor Gerasimov vs Evgeny Donskoy
Head-to-head: Gerasimov 3-1 Donskoy
Egor Gerasimov has a very solid lead in the head-to-head, including their latest encounter at Indian Wells last year. The Belarusian is yet to play his best tennis after the restart but he has at least scored two wins (including an upset over Dusan Lajovic at the US Open).
In contrast, Evgeny Donskoy’s struggles have continued, with the Russian losing all four times he took to the court during the last month and a half. Donskoy is currently nowhere near his peak form while Gerasimov has really developed his game in the past few years and should be able to continue dominate this rivalry.
Prediction: Gerasimov in 2
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Alexander Bublik vs Mackenzie McDonald
Head-to-head: first meeting
Mackenzie McDonald’s comeback after many physical issues has been going at a steady, but pretty slow pace. The American was never really a master of indoor conditions though and he’ll be facing a very tough task here. Alexander Bublik might be very eccentric and unpredictable, but the serve and huge shots are always bound to bring him a ton of free points in quicker conditions. Indeed, the Kazakh’s arsenal of weapons should give him too much for McDonald.
Prediction: Bublik in 2
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Tennys Sandgren vs Aslan Karatsev
Head-to-head: first meeting
Aslan Karatsev was one of the best players after the restart, dominating a series of Challengers in the Czech Republic. The Russian took two titles and lost another final to Stan Wawrinka. He was expected to be an almost automatic qualifier at Roland Garros, but fell at the last hurdle to Sebastian Korda, a loss thar looks a lot better in retrospect, having witnessed Korda’s run to the fourth round.
Regardless, Karatsev has a better game than his ranking suggests and despite the fact that his recent success came only on clay, he has played well indoors in previous seasons. With Sandgren not carrying much momentum into St Petersburg, the Russian should have a reasonable chance to pull off the upset on home turf.
Prediction: Karatsev in 3
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Taylor Fritz vs Cameron Norrie
Head-to-head: Fritz 2-2 Norrie
This is quietly shaping up to be a very interesting rivalry. This pair have played each other four times in the past 22 months and split a total of four meetings. Both players will be rather happy that they can get off the clay already, although it was definitely Norrie who fared worse on the red dirt, winning just one match in three events. Fritz should be carrying much more momentum from his recent events and he’s also got a game much better suited to faster surfaces. The American’s brilliant serve can be really deadly when it clicks and it could be the decisive factor here.
Prediction: Fritz in 2
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Stan Wawrinka vs Daniel Evans
Head-to-head: Wawrinka 3-0 Evans
A very interesting matchup between huge power and a ton of variety. These days, no one really knows what to expect from Wawrinka. The Swiss went from pretty much unbeatable against Koepfer and Murray to lose in five sets to wildcard Hugo Gaston at the French Open. Wawrinka is not the best player on faster, slicker surfaces like in St Petersburg, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t play well on them in their prime.
Dan Evans could have a real chance here if he can utilize the full bag of tricks that he possesses. He has to really avoid letting Wawrinka unleash his power. While the Brit did not do well in the clay events, his all-court game is very well suited to the indoor conditions. For what it’s worth, this one will definitely be a good watch.
Prediction: Evans in 3
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