The ATP Los Cabos tournament presents first-round action on Monday. ATP Los Cabos is the 250-point hardcourt tournament being played this week in North America. The bigger prize is the ATP 500 event in Washington. However, as we know, players play a 250 instead of a 500 because they have a better chance of winning matches, which feeds all of their needs: getting match play before bigger tournaments arrive, banking some points, and of course, making more money. Playing the 250 instead of the 500 can serve a lot of goals. It can become a great week for the players who make things happen. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Los Cabos
Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano – Bernard Tomic: 21:00 EST
H2H: 0-1
Bernard Tomic is still toiling on the ATP Tour. A man who has openly expressed his lack of love for tennis, treating it as a job which pays the bills rather than as a sport which arouses rich passions, has decided to continue to punch the time clock in a loveless endeavor. It’s really hard to embrace that sort of approach, even though it is honest and free of pretense. For any tennis bettor, that view is not an easy thing to trust when Tomic plays an inferior player such as Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano in the first round of ATP Los Cabos. Tomic is ranked World No. 247, but Hernandez Serrano is ranked outside the top 600. Tomic is the clear betting-market favorite, and he has beaten Hernandez Serrano before, but will bettors trust Bernie, who infamously lost an ATP Tour match in under half an hour many years ago to Jarkko Nieminen?
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay/hedge options: Tomic moneyline at 1.61 at @betfair, Hernandez Serrano +1.5 sets at 1.57 @coral
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.
Betting on a Bernard Tomic match when Tomic is the favorite seems like a recipe for trouble. Hernandez Serrano isn’t especially good, but can you really trust Tomic with your money? There are other matches to bet on. If you insist on a bet, Hernandez Serrano on the game spread probably makes more sense than anything else.
That being said, betting on Hernandez Serrano +3.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Hernandez Serrano +3.5 games at 1.68 @unibet
Gabriel Diallo – Tristan Boyer: 21:00 EST
H2H: 2-0
Gabriel Diallo is ranked over 200 spots higher than Tristan Boyer on the ATP Tour, so it would seem natural that Diallo should be an overwhelming moneyline favorite according to the sportsbooks. Yet, the best moneyline price for the Canadian is 1.59, which seems like a much better price than the rankings would suggest. Why is Diallo not a 1.29 or 1.39 favorite? The best answer is that Boyer just won a couple of ATP Los Cabos qualifying matches. He has established a comfort zone in this environment and its playing conditions. Boyer also won three qualifying matches at Wimbledon a month ago. He is playing better than his World No. 388 ranking would suggest.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay/hedge options: Diallo moneyline at 1.59 at @betfair, Boyer +1.5 sets at 1.60 @interwetten
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – you shouldn’t bet on this match.
Tristan Boyer is playing a lot better than his World No. 388 ranking. That makes this match really tricky to bet on. It’s post-Wimbledon, pre-Canada tennis, a very in-between part of the tennis calendar when a lot of players are restarting the engines. It’s the beginning of North American summer hardcourt tennis, what used to be called the “U.S. Open Series.” At the start of this new portion of the calendar, we don’t know which players are going to respond well or poorly, so it’s best to sit back a bit and observe, at least at the beginning of ATP Los Cabos. If you have to bet, give small lean toward Diallo on the game spread.
That being said, betting on Diallo -2.5 games is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: Diallo -2.5 games @1.88 @bet-at-home
Cameron Norrie – Aleksandar Kovacevic: 22:30 EST
H2H: 0-2
These are two struggling tennis players at ATP Los Cabos. Cameron Norrie is 1-9 in his last 10 matches. He actually just broke a nine-match losing streak in his most recent outing. Aleksandar Kovacevic is 1-7 in his last eight matches. It’s pretty wild that Norrie is 1-9 in his last 10 matches and yet is the sportsbooks’ favorite here, even with an 0-2 head-to-head record against Kovacevic. What should tennis bettors do with this one?
Best Bet to Make
Parlay/hedge options: Norrie moneyline at 1.77 @betfair, Kovacevic +1.5 sets at 1.46 @unibet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.
Betting on bad players in a solo-athlete sport just seems like an invitation to misery. Why bet on someone who is losing matches left and right? You might make the argument you are fading the worse player or the player you think will play worse, but when two players are both playing poorly, as is the case in this ATP Los Cabos match, you are still trusting one of the two to do something well. If you are fading Norrie, you still have to trust that Kovacevic will make him pay. That’s why you shouldn’t bet on this match. If you have to scratch that itch, however, over 2.5 sets is the best bet. Both matches between these players have ended 6-4 in the third set.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets @2.27 @betsson
Main Photo Credit: Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports
