Although ATP Washington, a 500 event, might have slightly more star wattage in the draw than the ATP Los Cabos Open, there should still be plenty of entertaining tennis on day one in Mexico. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate on the opening day, as well as all the action in D.C., but who will secure their spot in the second round?
ATP Los Cabos Day 1 Predictions
Gabriel Diallo vs Tristan Boyer
Head-to-head: Diallo 2-0 Boyer
Gabriel Diallo might not be living up to the expecations many had of him – though he is still just 24 so has time on his side – but he’s still a considerably superior player to Tristan Boyer, with the American relatively inexperienced at this level. On paper, the Canadian should be able to dominate this match with his power from the baseline and his booming serve. Boyer benefitted from a Bernard Tomic walkover in qualifying to get to this main draw and will have nothing to lose, but he is unlikely to have a deep run here.
Prediction: Diallo in 2
Cameron Norrie vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
Head-to-head: Kovacevic 2-0 Norrie
Aleksandar Kovacevic reached the ATP Los Cabos final last year, beating Andrey Rublev on the way, so this is definitely a tournament that he enjoys playing and he will be hoping to maintain that positive feeling in Mexico this week. He could certainly use some wins after an average year that his left him on the verge of falling outside the top 100.
Encouragingly for the American, he beat Cameron Norrie here in 2023 and once again in Brisbane earlier this year – suggesting that this is a match-up that plays to his strengths, despite Norrie’s looping forehand. While Norrie is definitely the superior player overall, given the venue and the way this matchup has gone so far in their careers, Kovacevic might well get the win and start another run here.
Prediction: Kovacevic in 3
Coleman Wong vs Darwin Blanch
Head-to-head: first meeting
There is very little to separate both players in terms of quality here. Coleman Wong might be the higher ranked, but Blanch is still 18 years old and thus still .making his way up the rankings as he finds his footing on the ATP Tour. It’s a huge opportunity for both of them to get a win at ATP level and it should result in a very tight match, decided by very small margins and execution in key points. But Blanch, despite being the younger of the two, probably has the higher ceiling at the moment and should just about have enough to get past Wong.
Prediction: Blanch in 3
Alex Hernandez vs Bernard Tomic
Head-to-head: Tomic 1-0 Hernandez
Bernard Tomic, fresh (or not so fresh) from winning his first Challenger in a number of years, withdrew from the second round of ATP Los Cabos qualifying, but got into the main draw all the same as a lucky loser. As a result, it’s not completely clear how physically competitive he will be, particularly as he is not a player known for his resilience on that front.
That said, if he is fit, he should have a clear edge here and be able to beat Alex Hernandez with relative ease – as he did last year in their only previous meeting. Tomic’s day as a top 20 or 30 player are almost certainly in the past, the way he has been playing lately suggest that a return to the top 100 at least could be on the cards. After all, there has never been any doubt about his talent.
Prediction: Tomic in 2
Main photo credit: Jean-Yves Ahern-Imagn Images
