The ATP Bastad post-Wimbledon clay tennis tournament continues with more Round of 16 action on Thursday. This is the week on the calendar for the real clay tennis diehards of the ATP Tour, also players who were injured during grass season and need some matches before going to Canada and Cincinnati in August. The Bastad event in Sweden gives the ATP a Scandinavian summer stopover, which can be attractive to participating players. While the top ATP pros kick back and relax before heading to North America later in the summer, dozens of lower-ranked competititors are going at it for rankings points and a real chance at a trophy, quite possibly their best opportunity of the whole year. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Bastad
Nikoloz Basilashvili – Thiago Agustin Tirante: 5:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
The ATP Bastad Thursday card starts with this Round of 16 matchup. We told you earlier this week that Nikoloz Basilashvili is a very unpredictable and erratic player. He hits the ball very hard. He is not a subtle player. He only knows one way to play, one speed at which to hit the ball. It might seem that huge hitters are best suited for grass or a fast hardcourt, Nick Kyrgios being an obvious example, but for Basilashvili, it doesn’t often work that way. The slower clay slows down the ball and enables Basilashvili to get to the ball and then keep it in court. The surface slows down the game and sometimes gives more accuracy to Basilashvili’s hitting. Basilashvili was a 2.41 moneyline underdog earlier this week in Bastad, but he beat favorite Jan Choinski in straight sets. That’s Basil. He often confounds expectations. He now faces a test in Thiago Agustin Tirante, a solid claycourter who smoothly beat Sebastian Ofner earlier this week in straights.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay options: Tirante moneyline at 1.42 at @1xbet, Basilashvili plus 1.5 sets at 1.73 at @betway
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – you really should not bet on this match.
It remains true that some tennis players just aren’t great options to bet on, for or against. Basilashvili will disappoint you when you trust him and will play well when you fade him. He is often that kind of player. He clearly exceeded expectations in the win over Choinski. Will he now fail to live up to expectations against Tirante, who has 15 clay match wins this year and is a good, tough player on this surface? Playing the two parlays above could be considered, but no big wager should be put down, at least in our view. If you have to bet, we will put the over 2.5 sets bet out there because this one could easily go three.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets at 2.35 @bet-at-home
Andrey Rublev – Andrea Pellegrino: 6:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
ATP Bastad continues on Thursday with the top seed in the tournament, Andrey Rublev, taking the court. Rublev lost very early in Wimbledon, so even though he is a top-20 ATP player, it makes sense for him to play this week. He needs matches and some rhythm before going to North America in August. He has had two and a half weeks off. He should be playing instead of just sitting around, so this is a good decision for him.
Andrea Pellegrino is ranked No. 138. He is a clay specialist, having played 41 matches on the surface this year, winning 25. He needs to be loading up on clay tournaments as much as possible to boost his ranking. He won his first-round ATP Bastad match in straight sets, so he’s carrying solid form going into this encounter.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Rublev moneyline at 1.36 at @betfair, Pellegrino +4.5 games at 1.65 @unibet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 6 – bet three fourths of a unit on this match.
Because Andrey Rublev is physically fresh and rested for this match, it seems reasonable to make a confident wager on him here. Some players came to post-Wimbledon clay events after making the fourth round of Wimbledon and were clearly exhausted this week. Flavio Cobolli in Umag was an example. It was hard to understand why he even bothered to play this week. He lost immediately because he was tired; he should have been resting after Wimbledon. Rublev is in a different spot, though. He needs the match play. He’s way better than Pellegrino. He should be able to take this thing in straights.
That being said, betting on Rublev winning 2:0 is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: Rublev winning 2:0 @1.90 @bet-at-home
Alejandro Tabilo – Lautaro Midon: 8:00 EST
H2H: 1-0
Alejandro Tabilo and Lautaro Midon are the kinds of players who should be playing at ATP Bastad and the other post-Wimbledon clay tournaments this week. Tabilo is a top-35 player, but his ranking is based mostly on clay results. He is 24-10 on clay this year. That’s 34 matches so far this season on the surface. He played only three grass matches and didn’t win any of them. He has played only 11 hardcourt matches this year. Clay is where he makes his money and his points.
Lautaro Midon is also a dirtballer. He has played a whopping 45 matches on clay so far in 2026, winning 28 and losing 17. He beat Facundo Diaz Acosta earlier this week in Bastad. Diaz Acosta entered that match with 37 clay wins this year, but we told you to be cautious about that match because it’s not as though Midon was a chump on clay, having won 27 matches going in. He bumped that total up to 28.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Tabilo moneyline at 1.33 at @pinnacle, Midon +1.5 sets at 2.00 @unibet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 5 – Bet no more than two thirds of a unit on this match.
The lean here should go to Tabilo, who is a higher-ranked, higher-quality claycourter than Midon. However, Midon is obviously a comfortable clay tennis player who knows how to win on the surface. The rankings disparity between the players is considerable, which is why Tabilo is the lean, but we’re not going to assign an 8 or 9 confidence rating here. Midon is motivated and in form. What you could do if you (like us) are not fully confident that Tabilo will win decisively is to have Tabilo -1.5 or 2.5 games as a third parlay piece. You would have two parlays on Tabilo, one on Midon… but if you want to make that one bigger wager, Tabilo -3.5 games is about right.
That being said, betting on Tabilo -3.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tabilo -3.5 games @1.70 @10bet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
