Summertime is in full swing in Europe, and that means one thing: the 2026 Wimbledon Championships are upon us. The intrigue at the most prestigious event in tennis could not be higher on the men’s side as Casper Ruud looks to avoid the early upset against 2021 semifinalist Hubert Hurkacz. As always, we at LWOT offer our roundtable analysis and predictions on each match. Let’s dive in.
Wimbledon Day 1 Predictions
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Denis Shapovalov
Ilemona
Shapovalov’s attacking style naturally suits grass, where he can shorten points with his serve and left-handed forehand. Carreno Busta’s consistency should keep plenty of rallies competitive, but Shapovalov has more ways to finish points on this surface.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 4
Zain
As is the case for most of Denis Shapovalov’s matches, this one against Pablo Carreno Busta will also come down to whether the Canadian can control and sustain his aggression without imploding. Carreno Busta is the type of opponent who, at his best, could frustrate Shapovalov, but at this stage of his career it is unlikely he has that level of counterpunching on a faster surface, in what still should be a battle.
Prediction: Shapovalov in 5
Tope
Denis Shapovalov has decent Wimbledon pedigree but little else of note into this first-round clash, having lost 13 of 22 matches in 2026. Pablo Carreno Busta arrives fresher, his last outing a gutsy round-of-16 showing at Roland Garros. The Spaniard owns the head-to-head 6-2, including a win over Shapovalov in Dubai earlier this year, though they have never met on grass. Carreno Busta’s grinding baseline game is built for clay, so the surface shift introduces genuine uncertainty. Still, form and recent sharpness tilt the advantage toward the Spaniard.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 5
Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic
Ilemona
Brooksby has continued to rebuild his ranking with several encouraging performances this season. Vukic has the serve to keep things close, but Brooksby’s ability to disrupt rhythm and extend rallies could gradually wear him down.
Prediction: Brooksby in 5
Zain
Both these players played on grass against each other just last week in Eastbourne, where Jenson Brooksby won comfortably. And while Aleksandar Vukic’s serve can keep him in matches, it is likely that the American gets another win here on the back of his counterpunching skills.
Prediction: Brooksby in 4
Tope
Despite a torrid season, Aleksandar Vukic has quietly built a reliable record on the SW19 grass, reaching the second round in each of his three previous main draw appearances. Brooksby, meanwhile, has been in worse shape; the American won only six of 22 matches this season before scraping out of a nine-match losing streak at Queen’s Club a fortnight ago. Vukic faces an uphill climb, but the surface suits a grinder willing to make Brooksby work for every point.
Prediction: Vukic in 5
Shintaro Mochizuki vs Max Basing
Ilemona
Mochizuki has shown throughout his career that he is comfortable on grass, using his speed and clean timing to great effect. Basing has enjoyed a memorable run to reach the main draw, but Mochizuki’s greater experience on the surface gives him the edge.
Prediction: Mochizuki in 4
Zain
Both these players, ranked well outside of the top 100, have a great opportunity to make the second round of a Major here, having made the main draw through the qualifying rounds. As such, nerves and a long match are expected. Ultimately, Shintaro Mochizuki’s serve in these conditions should prove to be the difference.
Prediction: Mochizuki in 5
Tope
Shintaro Mochizuki arrives at Wimbledon with a point to prove, having qualified for a second consecutive year after a gutsy qualifying route and with memories of pushing Karen Khachanov to a fifth set in last year’s second round still fresh. Standing in his way is Max Basing, a 23-year-old Brit making his Grand Slam main draw debut after surviving his own five-set qualifying battle, a baptism of fire that will either sharpen him or drain him. Mochizuki’s superior experience at this level makes him the favourite, and that edge could prove decisive when the pressure builds.
Prediction: Mochizuki in 4
Casper Ruud vs Hubert Hurkacz
Ilemona
Ruud continues to improve on grass every season, but Hurkacz remains one of the most dangerous players on the surface thanks to one of the biggest serves on tour. If Hurkacz protects his serve consistently, he should create enough scoreboard pressure to come through a high-quality contest.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 4
Zain
Historically known for struggling on this surface, Casper Ruud’s first task will not be easy as he faces Hubert Hurkacz. Hurkacz has one of the best serves in the game and has played some of his best tennis on this surface. And for me, Hurkacz’s serve and counterpunching will be just too much for Ruud early on, as he suffers another early exit at Wimbledon.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 4
Tope
Casper Ruud has never advanced beyond the second round here, and nothing in his recent grass-court record suggests that changes now. Hubert Hurkacz, a 2021 semi-finalist on these lawns, offers the kind of big-serving grass-court threat that exposes Ruud’s limitations, and while recent patchy form raises questions about his own readiness, the Pole’s weapon of choice suits the surface perfectly. Ruud leads their head-to-head 3-1, but none of those meetings came on grass — a detail that renders that record largely irrelevant here. If Hurkacz finds his serve early, this could be a short afternoon for the Norwegian.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 4
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports
