We have reached semifinal Friday at the 2026 French Open, and two Italians remain, neither named Jannik Sinner. No. 10 seed Flavio Cobolli will square off against countryman Matteo Arnaldi for a spot in the Roland Garros final on Sunday. As always, we at LWOT offer our roundtable insights and predictions. But who will advance?
French Open Men’s Semifinal Predictions
Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo Arnaldi
Amanda
In an unexpected first Grand Slam semifinal for both players, the opportunities are seemingly endless for Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Arnaldi. They’ve had polar opposite runs to this point, with Cobolli winning mostly three-and-four-set matches while Arnaldi has been in a battle every round, spending the most time on court of anyone left in the French Open. They played each other at the French Open last year, and Cobolli won in four sets, a result he can reproduce here. Cobolli and Arnaldi have similar playstyles, but Cobolli is slightly sharper and more consistent across the court, giving him a clear advantage and a path to a straightforward win. However, the pressure and nerves of a first Grand Slam semifinal could potentially complicate the match.
Prediction: Cobolli in 4
Manuel
No one could have seen this all-Italian semifinal coming two weeks ago, but both players have played great tennis and fought very hard to reach this stage, especially Arnaldi, who has been on court for almost 20 hours. Judging by their respective rankings and time spent on court this fortnight, Cobolli is the favorite here, but Arnaldi is having the French Open of his life and will certainly make life very hard for Cobolli. It should be a very close match, with nerves affecting both players as they try to reach a first career Slam final and small details deciding the outcome.
Prediction: Cobolli in 5
Yesh
This is the French Open semifinal that absolutely no one saw coming. And if you say you expected this, I just don’t believe you. Arnaldi is here because his fourth-round opponent choked away an easy win, and his quarterfinal opponent wasn’t healthy. Cobolli, meanwhile, might be the most unassuming Top 10 player ever. He does nothing spectacularly but plays well and doesn’t seem to crack under pressure. That might matter, as might Arnaldi’s much longer time on court this event.
Prediction: Cobolli in 4
Shane
An Italian will play on Sunday for the French Open title, and it won’t be Jannik Sinner. Who would have thought that two weeks ago? Arnaldi’s run has been more improbable. He started the tournament outside the Top 100 and had only TWO ATP main draw wins all season before Paris. Cobolli, although underdiscussed, has been a Top 20 player all season. He has also looked sharper at Roland Garros. Despite benefiting from a Berrettini retirement in the quarterfinals, Arnaldi has still spent nearly seven more hours on court at the French Open than Cobolli. I will side with the fresher, more talented player.
Prediction: Cobolli in 4
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane – USA TODAY Sports
