The WTA Rome tournament moves into the second round on Thursday. The first round whittled down the field from 96 to 64. Now we begin to see the seeded players take the court after getting a first-round bye. When this situation exists, the main question facing tennis bettors is whether the first-round winners will benefit from rhythm and momentum, or if the players getting byes will benefit from added rest and recovery. First-round players got to play on the Rome courts, feeling the conditions, while players with byes might be a little tentative. Will those small advantages outweigh the fact that seeded players are higher ranked? It’s going to be a fascinating second round in Rome. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Rome
Udvardy – Mertens: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 0-1
Panna Udvardy defeated Alina Korneeva in the first round of Rome. It was a solid, clean performance for Udvardy, who won 6-2, 7-6, dominating the second-set tiebreaker 7-2. Udvardy should feel confident about her game after that performance. Elise Mertens has been decent but not spectacular in recent weeks. She made the third round of Madrid and the Round of 16 in Stuttgart. Those are respectable results, but nothing overwhelmingly impressive.
Best Bet to Make
Udvardy handled Korneeva, a player ranked almost 50 spots lower, but now she plays an opponent, Mertens, who is roughly 50 ranking spots higher. Mertens is not playing amazing tennis, but she isn’t playing poorly either. Mertens is winning the matches she is supposed to win, but isn’t doing anything more than that. Mertens doesn’t seem like a player who will beat an opponent ranked higher than her, but she will take care of business against a lower-ranked opponent here.
That being said, betting on Mertens winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Mertens winning 2:0 @1.68 @1xBet
Ruzic – Andreeva: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 0–0
This match looks lopsided on paper. Antonia Ruzic, ranked nearly 50 spots lower than Mirra Andreeva, is 2-3 in her last five matches and 4-6 in her last 10 matches. Andreeva won the Linz championship in April and just made a run to the Madrid final, where she lost to Marta Kostyuk. Andreeva struggled on hardcourts in March but turned things around in April on clay. Can Ruzic halt Andreeva’s momentum, or will this match play out the way most people think?
Best Bet to Make
This match won’t give you a big return on Andreeva winning in straight sets, so you have to go to the game spread. The spread, which is evenly priced and will therefore give you a good return on a winning ticket, is 6.5 games. Andreeva has been playing really well on clay this spring and should therefore be trusted to cover that spread. This is a match in which you should trust the favorite, not the underdog. The underdog isn’t playing well enough to deserve your confidence.
That being said, betting on Andreeva -6.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Andreeva -6.5 games @1.91 @Bet365
Bucsa – Zheng: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Cristina Bucsa has played one match since March 20, and she lost that match in Madrid to Zeynep Sonmez. Qinwen Zheng got through a very tough first-round match in Rome, fighting past Anna Bondar in three sets. Bucsa is well-rested but does not have a lot of match play on clay this spring. Zheng is far from her best form. Will winning a tough three-set match improve her confidence or leave her mentally fatigued against a fresher opponent?
Best Bet to Make
It is hard to trust Bucsa here, given how little she has played in general over the past one and a half months. More than that, she has played very little on clay specifically. No warm-up tournaments, no smaller events. Bucsa does not look like a player who is really committed to this clay season. She certainly isn’t acting like one. Zheng is the player who should be trusted here with the game spread. Zheng winning in straight sets isn’t quite worth the price. Go to the game spread instead.
That being said, betting on Zheng -5.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Zheng -5.5 games @1.90 @Betway
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
