The WTA Nottingham quarterfinal action unfolds on Friday. The grass season is so short, with only three weeks of tour play, followed by Wimbledon and then Newport, and that’s it. The season goes by very quickly. Players leave the grass as soon as they have just begun to relearn how to play on it. Because grass season doesn’t last long, there aren’t a large number of grass specialists in tennis, but Tatjana Maria is one of them. The established veteran has six grass wins in the very short lawn tennis season and will try to make her way to the semifinals. That’s just one of several interesting stories to keep track of. LWOS has our best bets for all four quarterfinal matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Nottingham
Bouzkova – Maria: Time 6:00 EST
H2H: 3-4
Marie Bouzkova faces Tatjana Maria. This is a really interesting matchup, not only because Maria has six grass match wins over the past few weeks and can reasonably be viewed as a grass specialist, but also because of the head-to-head between these two players. Maria leads the series 4-3, but if you look closely, Bouzkova has won the last three meetings after Maria won the first four. Maria is so good on grass, and yet is a clear betting-market underdog to Bouzkova. The three-match losing streak for Maria against this particular opponent is why she is the underdog.
Best Bet to Make
The fact that Bouzkova has won three in a row is really hard to ignore. You could go for over 2.5 sets here, expecting a long and dramatic battle between evenly-matched players who are playing well and will enter this match with confidence. However, we are going to trust that Bouzkova’s comfort zone against Maria will be the decisive factor in the match. Maria just blew out Dayana Yastremska, a pure power player, in her previous match victory. Bouzkova isn’t quite the same kind of player, so the matchup will be different and Maria won’t find it as easy to win points. Bouzkova moneyline is the play for a reasonable price.
That being said, betting on Bouzkova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Bouzkova winning @1.71 @Unibet
Pliskova – Gibson: Time 7:30 EST
H2H: 0–0
Karolina Pliskova faces Talia Gibson. Karolina Pliskova, a former Wimbledon finalist, knows how to play on grass. She entered her most recent match as the much lower-ranked player compared to Caty McNally (87 to McNally’s 54), but she showed that the rankings difference didn’t really mean much. She not only beat McNally but did so in straight sets. It was a very impressive performance. Talia Gibson is also playing well, however. She just defeated Qinwen Zheng in straight sets, winning a long second-set tiebreaker to close out the match. Gibson is not going to be a pushover for Pliskova in this match.
Best Bet to Make
The fact that Pliskova is a betting-market favorite could simply be a response to the belief or expectation that the public is going to put more money on her. Therefore, it could be argued that Pliskova is being overvalued here, especially since Gibson is ranked close to 20 spots higher than Pliskova in the WTA world rankings. However, Pliskova has a proven grass track record. She is coming off a really good performance against McNally. Qinwen Zheng, whom Gibson defeated, is not especially strong on grass. Pliskova, on grass, should be favored and should be expected to win. Take Pliskova moneyline for a reasonable price.
That being said, betting on Pliskova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pliskova winning @1.69 @Pinnacle
Bouzas Maneiro – Navarro: Time 9:00 EST
H2H: 1-0
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro faces Emma Navarro. Bouzas Maneiro has had a strong week in Nottingham. She surprised a lot of people by winning the first set convincingly over Katie Volynets before Volynets retired in the second set. It will be fascinating to see if Bouzas Maneiro can maintain momentum and advance to the semifinals. Emma Navarro needed three sets to beat Yulia Starodubtseva, giving her eight wins in her last 10 matches. Navarro has clearly become a better player over the past few weeks, and she has been able to carry some clay form into the grass season, which should be a source of optimism for her.
Best Bet to Make
Our recommendation is this. Go with Navarro moneyline as a parlay piece. The price for Navarro moneyline isn’t quite at the price point where we would recommend a value bet, at least not as a standalone wager. However, you can fold that bet into a parlay and then use your single bet on Bouzas Maneiro, either a set or a game spread. Bouzas Maneiro looks like an in-rhythm player. Her transition from clay to grass is going fairly smoothly. Navarro winning is the probable outcome, but Navarro did need three sets to beat Starodubtseva and is therefore not playing at the absolute peak of her abilities. Our official pick is Bouzas Maneiro plus 1.5 sets.
That being said, betting on Bouzas Maneiro +1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Bouzas Maneiro +1.5 sets @1.68 @Unibet
Li – Golubic: Time 10:30 EST
H2H: 1-1
Ann Li faces Viktorija Golubic. Both players won tough three-set matches on Thursday in the Round of 16. Li steadied herself and beat Taylah Preston, finally beginning to pull away at the end of the match, 6-2 in the third. Golubic had the much more dramatic and unlikely win on Thursday. She was down a break in all three sets, including a 3-1 deficit in the third set. Yet, she battled back to beat Zeynep Sonmez as a moneyline underdog. Golubic showed a tremendous fighting spirit and earned one of her best wins of the year. The win was impressive, but the way she won was even more admirable. Now, Golubic takes a lot of confidence into the quarterfinals against Li.
Best Bet to Make
Our bet on Sonmez moneyline was improbably denied on Thursday. Full credit to Golubic for never giving up in that match and continuing to break Sonmez’s serve when she absolutely had to. However, Golubic is not going to be able to consistently win matches like that. She will need to be better to beat Li, a top-35 player who is better than Sonmez and should be able to maintain control of the match once she gets the upper hand. You don’t need to be fancy here and go for Li in straight sets. A simple Li moneyline wager is generously priced.
That being said, betting on Li winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Li winning @1.82 @Pinnacle
Main Photo Credit: Robert Prange-USA TODAY Sports
