The ATP Masters 1000 in Rome, the first round on May 6, offers a few interesting clay-court angles. Marco Trungelliti looks well placed to take control against Zachary Svajda, while Camilo Ugo Carabelli should have the edge in the longer rallies against Alexander Shevchenko. Meanwhile, despite Jesper de Jong coming through qualifying with confidence, Nuno Borges has the higher-level experience to make him an appealing value option.
ATP Masters 1000 Rome 1/64-Finals
Trungelliti – Svajda: 06.05.2026 12:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Marco Trungelliti has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Madrid, the Argentine lost to Merida Aguilar in the opening match, three sets to one. He achieved his best results on clay courts at the Challenger Tour level.
Zachary Svajda has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Cagliari, Svajda lost to Hurkacz in the opening round in straight sets. He never succeeded on clay courts.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Trungelliti is the favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a better clay-court player than Svajda. He has already won the Challenger title on clay this season and even reached the ATP 250 final in Marrakech. We expect him to be a better player tomorrow.
That being said, Trungelliti covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Marco Trungelliti -3.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Ugo Carabelli – Shevchenko: 06.05.2026 12:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Camilo Ugo Carabelli has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Madrid, the Argentine lost to Cobolli in the second round in three sets. Last season in Rome, Ugo Carabelli lost to Zverev in the second round.
Alexander Shevchenko has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Aix en Provence, Shevchenko lost to Wu in the 1/8-Finals in straight sets. Last season in Rome, the Kazakh lost to de Jong in the opening round in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Ugo Carabelli is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He had way better results on clay courts this season than Shevchenko. We expect him to keep the rallies long and win.
That being said, Ugo Carabelli covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Camilo Ugo Carabelli -3.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
De Jong – Borges: 06.05.2026 15:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Jesper de Jong has won four of his last five matches. This week in Rome, de Jong qualified for the main draw of the tournament. In the final qualifying round, de Jong defeated Dellien in three tight sets after losing the opening set 4-6.
Nuno Borges has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Cagliari, Borges lost to Arnaldi in the quarterfinals in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Borges is a better player at the Masters 1000 level. De Jong has not had any notable results this season.
That being said, Borges winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nuno Borges winning @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
