The ATP Masters 1000 Madrid second round on April 25 features several matches where underdogs could provide value. Juan Manuel Cerundolo’s strong start gives him a chance to challenge Luciano Darderi; Martin Damm’s match sharpness could trouble Jakub Mensik. At the same time, Jaume Munar’s clay-court consistency may keep things competitive against Casper Ruud.
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/32-Finals
Cerundolo J.M. – Darderi: 25.04.2026 12:30 CEST
H2H: 3-3
Juan Manuel Cerundolo has won three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Argentine defeated Altmaier in the opening match in straight sets. Last season in Madrid, Cerundolo lost to Medvedev in the third round in straight sets.
Luciano Darderi has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Darderi lost in the second round against Kopriva in three sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Cerundolo is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He dominated in the opening match. Earlier this season in Rio de Janeiro, the Argentine defeated Darderi in three sets under similar conditions. We expect him to keep this match close.
That being said, Cerundolo covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Juan Manuel Cerundolo +2.5 games handicap @2.00 @bet365
Damm – Mensik: 25.04.2026 12:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Martin Damm has won three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Damm qualified for the main draw of the tournament. In the opening main draw round, the American defeated Popyrin in straight sets, offering all four breakpoints.
Jakub Mensik has lost three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Miami, a month ago, where he lost to Tiafoe in the third round. So far this season, the Czech has not played any clay-court matches.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Damm is the heavy underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Mensik has not played any clay-court matches so far this season. Damm played well so far this week in Madrid. We expect him to keep this match close.
That being said, Damm covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Martin Damm +3.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Munar – Ruud: 25.04.2026 12:30 CEST
H2H: 1-7
Jaume Munar has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Munar easily defeated Shevchenko in the opening match in straight sets. Last season in Madrid, the Spaniard lost to Bautista-Agut in the opening round in three sets.
Casper Ruud has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Monte Carlo, where he retired mid-match against Auger-Aliassime in the 1/8-Finals. He is the defending champion in Madrid. Last season, the Norwegian defeated Draper in the final in three sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Ruud is the favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. Munar played well in the opening match. On the other hand, Ruud just came back from an injury. We expect Munar to keep the rallies long and keep this match close.
That being said, Munar covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jaume Munar +3.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
