The ATP Estoril tournament heads into the quarterfinals on Friday. Andrey Rublev and Luciano Darderi were the top two seeds at last week’s ATP Bastad tournament. They met in the final. Here they are one week later in Portugal. They are the top two seeds once again. They are two wins away from meeting for another trophy. Both players cruised through their Round of 16 and are riding high. Can their opponents pull upsets in the quarterfinals? This is the clear story of the 2026 ATP Estoril event going into the weekend. LWOS has our best bets for four matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Estoril
Tiago Torres – Hugo Gaston: 7:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Tiago Torres pulled off the biggest upset of this ATP Estoril tournament to date when he beat third-seeded Alejandro Tabilo earlier in the week. Torres was a 6.82 moneyline underdog. He not only won but won in straight sets. That might have been priced close to 10.00. It really was a huge shocker. Anyone who put down a moderate sum of money on Torres winning got paid, especially if it was a minus-1.5 set bet. Now we’re all wondering if Torres has another shocker left in his bag of tricks, though beating Hugo Gaston wouldn’t be as seismic an upset as the win over Tabilo was.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay/hedge options: Gaston moneyline at 1.38 at @pinnacle, Torres plus 1.5 sets at 1.91 at @coral, Torres +4.5 games at 1.75 @BetVictor
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.
We have a lot of parlay and hedge pieces in place for you to consider. Two of the parlays/hedges are for Torres because our main bet is Gaston on the game spread. Torres is putting together an incredible run, but it is bound to end sooner rather than later. That’s our feeling on the match, but it’s a pure hunch as opposed to a stone-cold lock. Torres, after beating Tabilo, is full of confidence and surely thinks he is capable of anything here. That’s precisely the point. He could be great or awful or anywhere in between. There’s a volatility about Torres which does not lend itself to betting. You want to bet on what you think are predictable outcomes, not uncertain ones. You really shouldn’t bet, but Gaston -3.5 games is the best bet if you absolutely insist on betting.
That being said, betting on Gaston -3.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Gaston -3.5 games at 1.80 @bet365
Andrey Rublev – Luca van Assche: 8:30 EST
H2H: 1-0
Andrey Rublev is three wins from a second championship in as many weeks. He has looked comfortable on European clay after Wimbledon. He is taking advantage of being the top seed in each of these two events. He is not playing superior players. This doesn’t guarantee victory, but it certainly improves the odds, and so far, Rublev has been able to stay focused and take care of business. He spent very little time on court in his last match. He beat Timofey Skatov 6-1 6-1. He won’t be exhausted coming into this quarterfinal against Luca van Assche. The Frenchman did well to upset Pablo Carreno-Busta in three sets. Carreno-Busta was an in-form player. Van Assche was able to calmly counter him in an extended battle.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Rublev moneyline at 1.22 at @1xbet, van Assche plus 1.5 sets at 2.30 @coral
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – you shouldn’t bet on this match.
Rublev will very likely win, but whether he wins big or narrowly is hard to pin down. It’s difficult to think this match will be nearly as easy as the Round of 16 over Skatov. Van Assche just upset Carreno-Busta and is playing well. Calibrating a game spread pick (since Rublev winning in straight sets isn’t priced well enough for the risk involved) just isn’t easy here. It’s a match you should ignore as a bettor. If you have to bet, van Assche against the game spread makes the most sense.
That being said, betting on van Assche +5.5 games is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: van Assche +5.5 games @1.60 @interwetten
Roman Andres Burruchaga – Alexander Blockx: 12:00 EST
H2H: 2-0
Roman Andres Burruchaga is 25-13 on clay this year. He made the ATP Umag semifinals last week before coming to the ATP Estoril tournament. He is playing well and has rhythm coming from regular match play. He is in a groove. Alexander Blockx is 14-6 on clay this season, but he hasn’t played nearly as many post-Wimbledon clay matches as Burruchaga has. He is talented and he is the sportsbooks’ betting favorite in this match, but Burruchaga is not a tomato can. Anything but.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Blockx moneyline at 1.78 at @betfair, Burruchaga +1.5 sets at 1.46 at @unibet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.
This feels like a really close ATP Estoril match, which means over 2.5 sets makes the most sense. If you think one player clearly stands out as the winner, go with that player on the moneyline, but given Blockx’s talent and Burruchaga’s very strong clay tennis form at the moment, we aren’t confident about identifying the winner of this match. You probably shouldn’t bet on this one, but if you insist, over 2.5 sets is the most logical value bet.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets @2.27 @betsson
Jaime Faria – Luciano Darderi: 13:30 EST
H2H: 1-1
The crowds in Portugal wanted Nuno Borges to make a deep run at this ATP Estoril tournament, but he got knocked out early. Now, Jaime Faria joins Tiago Torres as one of two Portuguese players to make the quarterfinals. Faria is the more talented of the two Portuguese pros. If he can pull off the upset over Luciano Darderi in the quarterfinals, he has a decent chance of making the final on Sunday and playing for a title in front of a raucous home-nation crowd. Darderi is trying to make a second consecutive final at an ATP 250 clay event. He looked strong and will try to carry that form into this match.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay/hedge options: Darderi moneyline at 1.55 @unibet, Faria +1.5 sets at 1.65 at @10bet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – you shouldn’t bet on this match.
It might sound like a broken record, but this is not a great match to bet on. Darderi is in great form, but he cruised through his previous match and is now likely to face a much tougher test. Faria is playing in front of a home-nation crowd and is riding his own wave of good form. We have our parlay and hedge pieces in place, but our view is you shouldn’t make a big bet on this one. If you insist, Faria plus games on the game spread makes the most sense.
That being said, betting on Faria +3.5 games is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: Faria +3.5 games @1.73 @10bet
Main Photo Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images
