The ATP Estoril tournament heads into Thursday for the completion of the Round of 16 in Portugal. The tournament has been rocked by a couple of big upsets. Tiago Torres stunned third-seeded Alejandro Tabilo. Torres was a 6.82 moneyline underdog who won outright, and he did it in straight sets. Imagine betting on Torres to win in straight sets. The 2026 ATP Estoril event also witnessed a loss by fifth seed Nuno Borges of Portugal, a loss which disappointed the home crowd. Andrey Rublev is the top seed in this tournament. Will he stay the course, or will the parade of upsets claim him as a victim next? LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Estoril
Luca van Assche – Pablo Carreno-Busta: 7:00 EST
H2H: 1-0
Luca van Assche and Pablo Carreno-Busta have both put in solid work on clay this year. Van Assche is 14-11 on the surface in 2026, while Carreno-Busta has been even better at 19-7, including a run to the Round of 16 at Roland-Garros. It’s a match between a player who has had a decent year on clay and an opponent who has had an even better year on the surface. Carreno-Busta is and should be the sportsbooks’ favorite, but Van Assche knows how to play on clay and might not be a pushover.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay/hedge options: Carreno-Busta moneyline at 1.53 at @pinnacle, van Assche plus 1.5 sets at 1.62 at @unibet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – don’t bet more than half a unit on this match.
Carreno-Busta is clearly the better player having the better season, but it’s not as though van Assche can’t play well on clay. He can. This doesn’t feel like a match in which you should take a lot of risks. You can certainly lean to Carreno-Busta but shouldn’t view him as a stone-cold lock. Put one van Assche parlay piece in place as a hedge.
That being said, betting on Carreno-Busta -2.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Carreno-Busta -2.5 games at 1.75 @10bet
Jaime Faria – Gonzalo Bueno: 9:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
These are two dedicated dirtballers. It’s why they are playing ATP Estoril instead of resting up for North American hardcourts. Jaime Faria is 29-13 on clay this year, while Gonzalo Bueno is 23-18. Faria just posted a really good win and an upset over Botic Van De Zandschulp in straight sets. Bueno barely beat Tiago Pereira, a lower-ranked opponent. Faria comes in with considerable momentum as a result of the win over Van De Zandschulp, but Bueno – with 23 clay match wins this year – is no chump on this surface.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Faria winning 2:0 at 1.59 at @1xbet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – you shouldn’t bet on this match.
Faria should definitely win this match, but Faria moneyline is not priced well because he’s such a huge favorite in the sportsbooks. When one player is a massive favorite, the only play which really makes sense if you really feel strongly about the match is an underdog play. This is because you think the dog is undervalued or underrated. We don’t feel strongly about Bueno as an underdog here, which is why we don’t think you should bet on the match. However, the prices for various game spreads aren’t attractive enough on the Faria side, so we will lean Bueno (but without a lot of confidence).
That being said, betting on Bueno +5.5 games is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: Bueno +5.5 sets @1.65 @interwetten
Andrey Rublev – Timofey Skatov: 12:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Andrey Rublev won the ATP Bastad title in Sweden. He came to Portugal for another 250-point tournament and is trying to lift another trophy at the ATP Estoril showcase. He gets what, on paper, looks like a soft draw on Thursday. Timofey Skatov is ranked No. 163, but he upset Jesper De Jong as a 7.50 moneyline underdog. Does he have another shocker in store for this tournament (and tennis bettors)?
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Rublev winning 2:0 at 1.35 at @1xbet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.
Another match with a massive favorite just isn’t attractive to bet on. A player can win a match 6-4 6-3 and do exactly what he is supposed to do as a professional and yet won’t cover the game spread. We are going to lean to Rublev because the gap in quality between him and Skatov is so massive, but we don’t think you should bet here.
That being said, betting on Rublev -5.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Rublev -5.5 games @2.00 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
