The ATP Gstaad tournament in Switzerland presents its semifinal Saturday slate. This ATP 250 tournament has given a real lift to a player who used to be a fixture in the ATP top 10. Stefanos Tsitsipas was having an absolutely miserable 2026 tennis season. Then he came to Switzerland, seeking a restart on clay, his favorite surface. Tsitsipas hasn’t dominated the competition at the ATP Gstaad event, but he has been able to string a few wins together. Tsitsipas being outside the top 50 doesn’t feel normal, but it is reflective of how he had been playing before this tournament began. Now the Greek star is two wins away from a title which would put him on the doorstep of a return to the top 50 if he can put together more good tournaments this summer. Let’s see what happens. LWOS has our best bets for two matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Gstaad
Raphael Collignon – Juan Manuel Cerundolo: 5:00 EST
H2H: 0-3
The ATP Gstaad Saturday semifinal doubleheader offers this unexpected matchup between Raphael Collignon and Juan Manuel Cerundolo. Collignon is into the top 40 in the live ATP rankings. He can make the top 35 with a title in Switzerland. He beat Valentin Vacherot, a top-25 player, in the quarterfinals. Cerundolo beat Casper Ruud, the second straight year he beat the Norwegian in Gstaad. Cerundolo is 23-11 on clay this year. Cerundolo beat Miomir Kecmanovic earlier in the week and used that win to build momentum in subsequent matches. It’s a battle between two players who are surging. As you can see, though, Cerundolo leads the head-to-head 3-0. Will that matter in the fourth meeting between the two players?
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay options: Collignon moneyline at 1.66 at @Pinnacle, Cerundolo plus 1.5 sets at 1.50 at @betway
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – don’t bet more than half a unit on this match.
This is a really fascinating betting scenario for obvious reasons. Collignon is the sportsbooks’ favorite despite being 0-3 against Cerundolo head to head. There is a belief that Collignon is the better player and is now ready to win this matchup. Yet, when an athlete struggles against a specific opponent, it is not easy to trust that athlete unless or until he shows he can win at least once. Cerundolo plus 1.5 sets is a good parlay piece to have here, and if you wanted to go for Cerundolo moneyline, that would not be a terrible bet, either. However, Collignon’s quality form makes it hard to trust that Cerundolo will win outright. The best play here, but one in which you shouldn’t invest maximum money, is over 2.5 sets. All three previous matches between these players went three sets. It’s not an easy match to bet on, but over 2.5 sets does make the most sense.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets at 2.21 @betsson
Alexander Shevchenko – Stefanos Tsitsipas: 7:30 EST
H2H: 1-0
Stefanos Tsitsipas came to this ATP Gstaad tournament needing a boost after a predictably early exit from Wimbledon, a tournament where he has never done well. Tsitsipas was ranked outside the top 80 going into Switzerland, but with his push to the semis, he is now No. 72 and can move several spots up with another win. Tsitsipas narrowly defeated Jerome Kym earlier in the week. Surviving that match gave him confidence. He was able to beat Arthur Rinderknech in the quarterfinals and give himself a chance to go all the way to the victory stand. He now faces Alexander Shevchenko, who beat Quentin Halys en route to this semifinal stage.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Tsitsipas moneyline at 1.34 at @1xbet, Shevchenko +1.5 sets at 1.85 @unibet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – You should not bet more than half a unit on this match.
In terms of betting strategy for this ATP Gstaad semifinal, Shevchenko +1.5 sets and Shevchenko +3.5 games are both priced the same at 1.85. If Shevchenko plus 1.5 sets can be found for 1.85 as a parlay piece, there’s no real point in doubling down and making Shevchenko +3.5 games your main bet for the same price. One option is to go over 2.5 sets for better value. However, over 2.5 sets is best for a match in which you really can’t make up your mind about the outright winner. We think Tsitsipas, having reached the semifinals, is going to win. If he does (and we have his moneyline as a small parlay piece), he’s probably going to be able to cover the game spread. The set spread parlay piece therefore acts as a hedge. It’s a better way to bet this match than to have a Shevchenko +3.5 game ticket. You’re overexposed if you do that. Let’s also emphasize this is not an easy match to bet on. Don’t bet the farm here.
That being said, betting on Tsitsipas -2.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tsitsipas -2.5 games @1.60 @betway
Main Photo Credit: Danielle Parhizkaran-USA TODAY Sports
