The WTA Bad Homburg semifinal matches will be played on Friday. The semifinals might not be what people expected, but it is by no means a bad product. Only two seeded players remain, and none of them are in the top three. Elina Svitolina might have been able to progress, but she ultimately decided to take the rest of the week off and heal up for the premier grass tournament in Wimbledon. Naomi Osaka and Karolina Muchova remain the only seeded players in Bad Homburg. LWOS has our best bets for the two semifinal matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA Bad Homburg
Wang – Osaka: Time 7:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Our first WTA Bad Homburg semifinal match will pit one of China’s favorites against one of Japan’s favorites when Xinyu Wang and Naomi Osaka meet for the first time. Not only is Wang in the semifinals for singles at Bad Homburg, but she’s also in the doubles semifinals with her partner Su-Wai Hsieh. She will need to focus her energy on her singles match if she wants to pull an upset. Osaka is 8-2 in her last ten matches, but Wang is just 5-5 in hers. The betting odds absolutely reflect this disparity and several others.
Best Bet to Make
At present, the books see Osaka as a 1.3-3.46 favorite, on average. It probably doesn’t help that her victory over Svitolina was a walkover rather than an outright win. If she had beaten Svitolina straight up, I imagine the line would at least reflect that victory for what it was. Osaka is playing much better than Wang. Her only losses in that ten-game span were to Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek. She hasn’t won a tournament in 2026, but she’s one of the favorites to win now. I think Osaka winning in straight sets is the right way to go here.
That being said, betting on Osaka winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Osaka winning 2:0 @1.91 @WilliamHill
Ruse – Muchova: Time 9:00 EST
H2H: 0–1
Our other WTA Bad Homburg semifinal match features Karolina Muchova taking on Elena-Gabriela Ruse. The Romanian made the quarterfinals at Hertogenbosch before ultimately losing to the tournament winner Emma Navarro, whom she just beat in the quarterfinals here in Bad Homburg. Talk about getting instant revenge. Muchova has been a quiet wrecking ball this season. She has a tournament title, two final appearances, and five semifinal appearances, to say nothing of her other quality finishes. Were Muchova to win, it would be her third final appearance and the third different surface on which she’s reached a final.
Best Bet to Make
Muchova is a 1.5-2.5 favorite on average. She’s beaten Ruse the only other time they played, which was a 2023 hardcourt match. Muchova struggled in the first set before cruising to an easy second-set victory. If Muchova continues to play at the level she’s been playing, I don’t really see a way for Ruse to win this match. I guess fans could point to the fact that Ruse is 33-17 on grass, but Muchova is just 23-16. I would say that’s fair, and why I think this match goes three sets.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets @2.50 @Betsson
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
