The WTA French Open tennis finishes the third round of the tournament on Saturday. Half of the Round of 16 has been filled out. Now the rest of the Round of 16 will be determined. The women’s tournament at Roland-Garros is intensely interesting because it feels so wide-open right now. The big names are still in the tournament, with the exception of Elena Rybakina, but there is no overwhelming favorite, at least not yet. So much seems possible, and that’s why these matches are so exciting. LWOS has our best bets for three matches on Saturday. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
WTA French Open
Sakkari – Chwalinska: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 1-0
Maria Sakkari faces Maja Chwalinska. This is a highly intriguing match because the lower-ranked player is in better form than the higher-ranked player. It’s a scenario we have seen on multiple occasions this week in France. On several of those occasions, the lower-ranked player in good form has beaten the higher-ranked player. Chwalinska entered this tournament outside the top 100. She has soared well inside the top 100 with two strong wins, including her recent decisive victory over Elise Mertens, a top-25 player. Sakkari has looked good, too, beating No. 12 seed Linda Noskova and then Claire Liu.
Best Bet to Make
We have a hard time picking a moneyline winner here, and when that happens, it’s always good to bet on over 2.5 sets. Both players are in good form, but would you trust either one to win this match in straight sets? Sakkari could get nervous. It happens a lot to her at the major tournaments. Chwalinska is on a roll, having won five straight matches, but the pressure of the match could cause her to get tight. You could try to pick a winner, but the most probable outcome is that the match will be very close. That’s when you should bet on over 2.5 sets, which always brings a good price if not a great one.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets @2.42 @Betsson
Jovic – Osaka: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 0–0
Iva Jovic faces Naomi Osaka. This is a really hard match to call, and it makes sense that it’s difficult to predict. Jovic is the No. 17 seed, Osaka the No. 16 seed. Jovic just defeated Emma Navarro, who beat her the week before in Strasbourg. Jovic made impressive adjustments and bounced back from that loss, showing maturity for a young player. Osaka has beaten two veterans, Laura Siegemund and Donna Vekic, to make the third round. Now she faces a much younger player, but someone hungry for success.
Best Bet to Make
Both players are improving and showing reasons to trust them. Jovic being able to adapt to Navarro and figure her out is very noticeable. Not all young players make that kind of quick turnaround after losing one week earlier. Osaka is 6-2 in her last eight matches, and her only losses in that span have been to Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka. Osaka is playing well, but clay is not her best surface. There are good reasons to pick either player, but it’s hard to ultimately choose a winner. That’s when you know that over 2.5 sets makes the most sense.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets @2.36 @Betsson
Sabalenka – Kasatkina: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 7–2
Aryna Sabalenka faces Daria Kasatkina. The head-to-head tally is noticeable here, with Sabalenka having five more wins than Kasatkina in nine meetings. Sabalenka has looked solid in her first two rounds. She had dealt with minor back problems in previous weeks, but the hot weather in Paris really does seem to be helping her feel comfortable on the court. Kasatkina looks really good right now. She has won two French Open matches in straight sets and is gaining form after previous struggles.
Best Bet to Make
Sabalenka winning seems obvious, but Sabalenka winning in straight sets won’t get you much of a price since she is such a huge favorite. What you could do is have Sabalenka minus 1.5 sets as part of a parlay, but then make a single bet on Kasatkina versus the spread. The most evenly-priced game spread is 6.5 games. Sabalenka failed to cover that spread in her most recent match against Elsa Jacquemot, who is not as good a player as Kasatkina. You could also consider betting Sabalenka minus 5.5 games while playing Kasatkina plus 6.5, but our official play is Kasatkina plus 6.5 games. She won’t get completely blown out.
That being said, betting on Kasatkina +6.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kasatkina +6.5 games @1.84 @Unibet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
