At this stage of his career, it’s clear that Alexander Zverev’s legacy, rightly or wrongly, will be judged based on his ability to win the Grand Slam that has eluded him to date. Already an Olympic gold medalist, two-time ATP Finals Champion and seven-time ATP Masters Champion, the German has spent the best part of ten years at the top of the tennis tree, consistently battling for the biggest honours.
And with the shock news that Jannik Sinner has been knocked out of the field, after losing 18 of his last 20 games against Juan Manuel Cerundolo, you can’t help but feel this is the best chance he will ever get. No Carlos Alcaraz, no Sinner and an ageing (albeit still brilliant) Novak Djokovic.
French Open Door Wide Open For Zverev
A “Nearly” Story
After three Grand Slam finals and no silverware to show for it, there is a growing sentiment that time is running out for the 29-year-old. Perhaps his best chance until now was in 2020. A behind-closed-doors US Open, which lacked a certain Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, also saw Novak Djokovic automatically defaulted midway through the fortnight.
Leading by two sets to nil against Dominic Thiem in a truly scrappy final, he essentially had one hand on the title. The Austrian fought back to take it to a final set, but Zverev still served at 5-3 to take it in 5. Over half an hour later, Thiem would fight back again to win his first Grand Slam title. He wouldn’t know it yet, but suffering a wrist injury that would derail his career just a year later, Thiem had secured the deal at his last-ever Grand Slam final.
Two more finals would come and go for Zverev. At the 2024 Roland Garros, he would lead Alcaraz by two sets to one. Yet again, he let momentum slip, with Alcaraz turning the match around to secure his third grand slam title. Last year at the Australian Open, it was barely competitive as an algorithmic Jannik Sinner dispatched him 6-3 7-6 6-3.
Fourth Time the Charm?
So, heading into this tournament, it’s hard to wonder how much these moments will play in his mind. Clay is arguably his best surface and there will always be a what-if sense had he not been injured against Rafael Nadal in the 2022 semifinal, but sport is cruel and time moves on.
He remains comfortably the 4th best player in the world. While he commented earlier this season, “I think there’s a big gap between Alcaraz, myself, maybe Novak, and everybody else. I think there’s two gaps right now.”
The reality is that in the tennis world, Sinner and Alcaraz consistently stand on top, while Djokovic can still match them on a given day but doesn’t have the body to do it week in, week out anymore. Zverev sits below them in the pecking order, and then everybody else below the 29-year-old.
With Alcaraz and Sinner out of Roland Garros, Zverev has an excellent opportunity to make his fourth Grand Slam final. In his half, Djokovic stands in his way, and has looked really sharp in his opening two rounds, which is always an ominous sign. Nevertheless, at 39 years old, there will always be a lack of certainty over whether his body can hold up for two weeks of five set tennis, especially on the clay.
Sinner Matchup Issues Become Irrelevant
So, while a run to the final might be possible, that only seemed a small part of the jigsaw. Getting there may be tough, but overcoming the obstacle is another thing altogether. As if Zverev’s Grand Slam final history doesn’t bring enough mental scar tissue, he also has to contend with his head-to-head record against Jannik Sinner. The German won four of the first five meetings but since 2025 has lost nine straight meetings, winning just two sets in the process.
Now, of course, that becomes irrelevant. Make the final and the three highest ranked players he could face are Ben Shelton, Felix Auger-Alliasime or Flavio Cobolli,
Before that, though, there is a task at hand, and that is navigating the earlier rounds. He has always been reliable at this stage but has often found himself embroiled in unnecessary five-set battles at the earliest rounds. Two matches in against Benjamin Bonzi and Thomas Machac, he has yet to lose a set.
Since the turn of the year, he has clearly upped the aggression, playing with less margin and more speed and looking to end points quicker. It does feel like this move has been done to increase his chances against Alcaraz, Sinner and Djokovic, but it is also proving to be energy efficient at the beginning of Slams.
A Straight-Set Procession
While Machac was far from his best and clearly struggling on the fitness front, you can’t take away from Zverev’s performance. It was attacking, ruthless and everything that he would need to be should he excel in the later days of this fortnight.
He next faces Quentin Halys in the third round, before a potential round of 16 clash with Karen Khachanov. Should he ease through those matches in a similar manner, then confidence will really begin to build. He said,
“Something has stopped me at this stage from winning. At the end of last year, we sat down with my team and said… we have to try more things, we have to try to be more aggressive, we have to try to hit the ball harder, come in a bit more, a bit more variety as well. So far, it’s working. I’m happy to be through, and we’ll see how the next 10 days go.”
With Taylor Fritz, the other top eight seed in his quarter, it looks likely that he will battle Rafael Jodar in the quarterfinals. A truly exciting prospect. Yet, when it comes down to it, the confident start and increased aggression will be forgotten if he doesn’t get over the line in two weeks. As harsh as it sounds, sport is harsh and people generally remember the winners and everything else blurs into the background.
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – Imagn Images
