The WTA 1000 in Madrid is the tournament that keeps on giving in the upset count. Yesterday, I wrote an article titled “An Opportunity Awaits For A New WTA Madrid Finalist.” It, I focused solely on the bottom half of the draw, with Marta Kostyuk facing off against Linda Noskova and Anastasia Potapova set to battle former World #1 Karolina Pliskova. Spoiler alert for those who haven’t read, but I backed Kostyuk to make her second final of the season.
The point being, while Leylah Fernandez and Hailey Baptiste all lingered as unlikely potential finalists, I felt so certain that Mirra Andreeva and Aryna Sabalenka would advance through to the semifinal without much difficulty. Yet, I should know better, as if there is anything the WTA Mutua Madrid Open has taught us this year, it’s to expect the unexpected.
Hailey Baptiste Records Career Best Win
Aryna Sabalenka became the latest seed to tumble, losing 2-6 6-2 7-6 to World #32 Hailey Baptiste. It’s just her second defeat all season, the other being a Grand Slam final. It means that with six players left in the draw, only one of them belongs to the Top 10, with two in the Top 20. An opportunity awaits, so who will become a maiden winner?
Either way, you wonder whether this will be the type of win that kicks Baptiste’s career into gear, propelling her to another level. Like many of the upsets this fortnight, it was more down to the lower-ranked brilliance than an off day from the favourite. Sabalenka simply admitted after the match,
“She played really brave tennis.”
Breakthrough Moment
For Baptiste, a win like this was missing in her career. After beating Maddison Keys at the age of 17 in straight sets at the Washington Open, many tipped the American for an immediate rise to the top. So often the weight of expectation can crush a young prospect–and while it would only be speculation to attribute this effect to Baptiste, the fact remains that she would have to wait another five years before properly establishing herself on Tour. On March 18th, 2024, she broke into the Top 100 and continued to grind in the lower end tournaments.
2025 would be her breakthrough year, though, making the fourth round at the French Open, only for a freshly crowned Australian Open champion in Maddison Keys to get her third straight victory in the head-to-head since the shock result six years prior. With third round appearances at Wimbledon and the Australian Open, the 24-year-old continued on her upward trajectory, reaching the Abu Dhabi Open semifinal and the Miami Open quarterfinals.
Now, inside the Top 32 and set to be seeded for Roland Garros, she has recorded the biggest win of her career, defeating the World #1 to reach her first WTA semifinal. She reflected,
“Going in, I definitely wanted to make her feel uncomfortable in any way that I could. Trying to hit drop shots, short slices and heavier balls. I didn’t want to give her rhythm obviously because that’s what she loves and that’s what she is so good at.
In the beginning it was obviously a little difficult for me to find the ball and get comfortable, but once I did, I was able to execute the game plan really well and she just was unhappy.”
The Comeback Begins
After 40 minutes of play, the scoreboard read 6-2 Sabalenka. For anyone deciding to tune it at that point, it would have seemed routine. As though the defending champion was bulldozing her way past another unseeded opponent on her way to another final.
The reality was somewhat different. While Sabalenka was the better player, this was a competitive match. Any drop in level from last year’s Roland Garros runner-up could prove costly.
And it did. Not long after, Baptiste secured a double break of serve and was 4-0 up, heading towards a decider. She held her serve twice and tied at one set all, this match was to be decided on a one-set shootout.
It’s at this point that you expected Sabalenka to take her game to the next level. To play with even more aggression and bully her opponent off the court. It sounds harsh, but it’s her continuous excellence that brings these lofty expectations.
5-4 and 40-15 up with two break points, it seemed like she had just done that. A Mirra Andreeva vs Aryna Sabalenka Indian Wells rematch seemed all but certain. In a game of great nerve and ball placement, Baptiste saved five match points. The Estadio Manolo Santa was taking notice.
A Career Defining Moment?
These pressure moments are usually what separates the top players from those slightly below. Baptiste, with her wizard-like tennis, had flipped the script. With two break points at 5-5, Sabalenka skewed a forehand wide and suddenly the American was serving for the match.
Yet, Sabalenka broke back and all the momentum was back on her racket heading into the tiebreak. It seemed that Baptiste’s unlikely chance of a victory had slipped through her fingers. How would she react? After all, Sabalenka has lost just one of her last 24 tiebreaks, a run of 23 coming to an end against Naomi Osaka on Monday.
It’s a testament to her mental strength that she was able to save another match point and see out the match, with an aggressive forehand cross winner on the third ball. We know what Baptiste is about: fearless tennis with a dash of magic sprinkled on top. In the biggest moment of her career, she was able to stick to those principles and see them excel against the very best the world has to offer.
It’s a win that should give her so much belief heading into the semifinal. It may have taken longer than her young self could have expected, but she has shown the tennis world that she can compete with the very best and belongs at the top end of the game.
She now faces Mirra Andreeva in a fascinating contrast of styles. Will it be the meticulously crafted game of Andreeva or the exciting unpredictability of Baptiste? Either way, it’s been an excellent start to the season for a 24-year-old who seems to be blooming into a series factor at this level of competition.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images
