The Rouen tournament is the smaller WTA tournament this week. The main event is in Stuttgart, where there are more points and larger payouts. Rouen is an event where struggling or lower-ranked players try to build form and win matches against second-tier competition, with Madrid’s two-week tournament not far away. Let’s look at some of the first-round matches as Rouen rolls into action on Monday.
WTA Rouen
Baptiste – Ponchet: 01:00
H2H: 0-0
Hailey Baptiste faces Jessika Ponchet. Baptiste is ranked in the top 40, well ahead of Ponchet, who is outside the top 150. Baptiste has been playing higher-tier tournaments in recent weeks, making the Round of 16 in Miami and then going to Charleston. Ponchet has spent recent weeks playing ITF-level matches. On paper, this seems like a clear-cut outcome, and the books agree with that view.
Best Bet to Make
The match seems to be lopsided. Baptiste is almost certain to win, so you’re not going to get a great price even for a Baptiste straight-set win. You have to go with the game spread. Baptiste is a solidly better player, so covering a medium-to-large spread is realistic and yet something that will get you a good return, and that’s the name of the game here. If nothing else, I want you to make some money.
That being said, Baptiste winning comfortably (-5.5) is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Baptiste -5.5 games @2.05 @10Bet
Kasatkina–Li: Time 13:30
H2H: 0-0
Darya Kasatkina hasn’t played on the WTA Tour since February 17th. Not being able to play Indian Wells or Miami – or anything else – for nearly two whole months has pushed Kasatkina’s ranking down to No. 70. The former top-10 player makes her comeback in Rouen against Ann Li, whose ranking is in the mid-30s. It’s a fascinating match. Can Kasatkina immediately regain some magic, or will the layoff be too much to overcome? You know how I feel about rust. That said, every rule must have at least one exception.
Best Bet to Make
Kasatkina used to be No. 8 in the world, so it’s clear her ceiling is higher than Li’s. However, being off the tour for nearly two whole months can create rust. Which part of this intriguing situation will end up defining it more? It’s not easy to do, but the smart play here is to simply pick a winner, since either player will produce a good return on a moneyline win. I’m leaning toward Kasatkina because of the upside and the belief that returning to the court is a declaration that she’s ready to play.
That being said, Kasatkina winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kasatkina winning @1.95 @Betway
Blinkova–Potapova: 01:00
H2H: 2-0
Anna Blinkova will take on Anastasia Potapova. The big news last week was that Potapova made a run to the Linz final before losing to Mirra Andreeva in three sets. Potapova took a real step forward. Now let’s see if she can continue playing at a high level and carry her momentum forward, as well. Blinkova hasn’t played since WTA Bogota, after losing in the round of 16 to a player 113 spots lower than her. It’s worth noting that Blinkova has never made it out of the first round in Rouen.
Best Bet to Make
This is a bet that has to weigh two things: Potapova is playing better tennis, but will be more tired after a full week at WTA Linz. She had Monday off and now has to come right back onto the court on Tuesday to face Blinkova. Will Potapova’s fatigue catch up to her, or will her form defeat Blinkova? My thinking here is that even if Potapova wins, it will probably be close because Blinkova will have a lot more rest.
That being said, Blinkova not getting blown out is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Blinkova +1.5 sets @2.10 @bet-at-home
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
