The WTA Linz tournament enters the Round of 16. Multiple seeded players will be in action, but the most intriguing match on the schedule could involve two unseeded players. This is always such an important stage in a tournament, as players try to make it to the weekend and stack matches to build confidence, points, and their bank accounts. Let’s look at notable matches on the Thursday card.
WTA Linz
Kalinina – Vekic: Time 14:00
H2H: 0-0
Anhelina Kalinina and Donna Vekic are both ranked outside the WTA Top 100. This means they are both under pressure to improve their rankings and qualify for the bigger tournaments coming up in the next few months. Both players would greatly improve their overall ranking with a title in Linz. Will this match be a catapult for either player heading into the teeth of the European clay season?
Best Bet to Make
The reality of this match is that with two players outside the top 100, neither player is a moneyline lock, and I’m famously averse to these matches for this reason. Donna Vekic is priced as the underdog here. She has won six of her last seven matches. She has won multiple matches in Linz, including the qualifying rounds. Why bet against an established veteran when she’s playing an opponent who is not dramatically better?
That being said, Vekic straight up is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Vekic winning @2.18 @Betfair
Tagger – Samsonova: Time 16:00
H2H: 0-0
Lilli Tagger scored a solid win over Paula Badosa earlier this week in Linz. The Austrian, ranked outside the top 100, hopes her home-nation tournament will give her a big boost in the rankings. She has already taken one big step forward this week. Can she take another? Liudmila Samsonova has lost five straight matches. The No. 3 seed at this tournament will try to break that losing skid against Tagger in a match priced very close to even.
Best Bet to Make
The markets have Tagger priced as a very slight favorite at 1.84 to Samsonova’s average of 1.95 points. Samsonova is a generally better and more established tour pro. Obviously, Tagger is being priced as the slight favorite because of Samsonova’s five-match losing streak, but Samsonova has lost to solid players. Hailey Baptiste and Magdalena Frech, two of the players who recently beat Samsonova, are both in the WTA Top 40. Leylah Fernandez is in the top 30. Samsonova isn’t losing primarily to players outside the top 100 – occasionally, but not all the time. I’ve generally been a bigger fan of players who have quality losses, especially if they’ve performed well in those losses.
That being said, Samsonova winning straight up is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Samsonova winning @2.05 @Pinnacle
Pliskova – Alexandrova: Time 18:00
H2H: 3-2
Aging veteran Karolina Pliskova still has something left in the tank. She won in straight sets over Aliaksandra Sasnovich earlier this week to earn her spot in the Round of 16. Now we get to see if she can stack another win on top of that one and move into the quarterfinals. Standing in her way is Ekaterina Alexandrova, the World No. 13 player on the WTA Tour. Alexandrova is the No. 2 seed at this tournament behind only Mirra Andreeva.
Best Bet to Make
Pliskova did well against Sasnovich, but that outcome might be more of a commentary on Pliskova’s opponent than on Karolina herself. Let’s see Pliskova prove that she can bring her best against the No. 2 seed and a top-15 opponent. Alexandrova winning both sets by at least two games – not needing a tiebreaker – seems like a very logical and probable outcome. It is reasonably priced and is worth the bet. There will be no underdog advice here.
That being said, Alexandrova covering a -3.5 game spread is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexandrova -3.5 games @1.73 @10bet
Korpatsch – Potapova: Time 19:30
H2H: 1-0
Two WTA veterans go head-to-head as Tamara Korpatsch takes on Anastasia Potapova. They met only once, back in 2019, so they have been competing on the tour for a long time. Both players are outside the top 95, so this is an important match for building up their WTA ranking heading into Madrid and Rome. Korpatsch has won three matches in a row in Linz, two of them in the qualifying rounds. Potapova hasn’t won as many matches in her last five, but has played in bigger tournaments and tougher competition. That usually means a fair bit unless you have someone like Victoria Mboko, who was a ridiculous prodigy at a lower level, and it seems to be translating just fine at the WTA level.
Best Bet to Make
Potapova, perhaps surprisingly, if you’re unaware, plays for Austria. This match is the night match in Linz on Thursday. A supportive crowd will be in Potapova’s corner. Is Korpatsch good enough to overcome that crowd? Probably not. Potapova -2.5 goes at 1.8 on Bet365. The Asian handicaps offer pretty good odds overall, this is just a solid pick.
That being said, Potapova covering a -2.5 game spread is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Potapova -2.5 games @1.80 @Bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
