Last year, Alexander Bublik lost in the first round of qualifying at the Monte Carlo Masters. This year, he’s the eighth seed and has put together a quarterfinal run (in line with his seeding). But now he’s faced with the task of taking on top seed and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz for the first time in his career. Bublik is no stranger to playing against the present top of the game, having faced Jannik Sinner eight times and coming away with two wins. But somehow, Bublik has always eluded Alcaraz – until now.
Bublik’s Monumental Turnaround
One reason for the lack of matches between these two players is Bublik’s up-and-down career. For most of his career, Bublik was something of a tour mainstay, known for on-court antics and not for the quality of his tennis. When Bublik fell out of the top 80 in March of 2025, his prospects looked dim. He struggled to win matches, and he certainly wasn’t getting to the point of playing Alcaraz.
But after that qualifying loss in Monte Carlo, Bublik put together one good run after another on clay, culminating in a quarterfinal run at Roland Garros; his best-ever Grand Slam result on a surface Bublik once declared he hates. Since then, Bublik has been playing the best tennis of his career and reached a career high of No. 10 in the ATP rankings.
And so, a year after losing the third set 6-0 in the first round of Monte Carlo qualifying, Bublik has put up yet another great result in reaching the quarterfinals. By all odds and logic the run will likely come to an end there, but as Tomas Martin Etcheverry proved in the round of 16, Alcaraz isn’t infallible.
Alcaraz is Great, Not Invincible
Alcaraz is the reigning champion at three of the four Grand Slams. He’s undisputedly one of the two best tennis players in the world and is currently at the top of both the ATP rankings and the year-end race. That doesn’t mean he can’t lose.
Alcaraz started the season off on a win streak with titles at the Australian Open and Doha, but lost in the semifinals of Indian Wells to Daniil Medvedev and suffered a shocking third-round upset against Sebastian Korda in Miami. His opening match in Monte Carlo was clinical, but in the round of 16 he dropped the second set to Etcheverry. And although Alcaraz led by a break for the entirety of the third set, it felt a lot closer than 6-3.
Still, Alcaraz is the heavy favorite in this matchup. He would be on any surface, but especially on clay. But Bublik is a tricky player for anyone to deal with, and playing him for the first time could cause a need for an adjustment period—one that Bublik could take advantage of.
Regardless of the outcome, the match is sure to be full of showmanship and highlight-worthy shots. Alcaraz, the better player and more comfortable on the surface, should be able to put this one away, but underestimating Bublik would be a mistake.
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-Imagn Images
