The second-round action at ATP Monte Carlo offers up some intriguing betting opportunities. The legubrious weather can completely take people out of their game, especially coming off rather pleasant conditions in the States. ATP events tend to feature the same names in the later rounds of tournaments, so the weather has the potential to make things much more interesting. I told you earlier this year that I would be shaking up how I did things; these articles are a reflection of that. Let me know in the comments if you approve of the changes or want me to go back to the old way.
ATP Monte Carlo
Fonseca – Rinderknech: Time 03:30
H2H: 0-0
Joao Fonseca is known for being an explosive and powerful player. Arthur Rinderknech is also known for being an explosive and powerful player. What’s going to happen when the irresistible force meets the immovable object in the second round at ATP Monte Carlo? While the matchup might look even on paper, Fonseca is a guy known for making the impossible look effortless. There’s a reason he’s often compared to Carlos Alcaraz. Rinderknech might be the higher-ranked player in this affair, but he’s not going to be anywhere close to the favorite.
Best Bet to Make
If we’re to talk about the players’ current form entering this match, there can be no doubt that Rinderknech is in poor form. There’s also Rinderknech’s previous performances at Monte Carlo, which are almost laughable for a player of his talent. At least Fonseca has the youth excuse, but there’s no such excuse for the Frenchman. At 30 years of age, the phrase “his best years are ahead of him” does not apply. Betting on Fonseca to win 2:0 is my advice.
That being said, Fonseca winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Fonseca winning 2:0 @1.85 @1xBet
Cerundolo – Machac: Time 03:30
H2H: 0-1
Francisco Cerundolo is a completely different player than he was when he last met Tomas Machac. Their only other match was a 2020 Challenger-level event in Prague. Cerundolo would have been about 21 years old at that time, and definitely not inside the Top 20 in the World. Machac is two years younger than Cerundolo, so he would have been a teenager at this time. Both men will feel like they’ve come a long way and learned an incredible amount since then.
Best Bet to Make
What makes this match interesting is that both men have done very well in 2026. Both have a title to their name. Machac’s win came at ATP Adelaide against countryman Ugo Humbert. Cerundolo crushed Luciano Darderi in the finals of ATP Buenos Aires. The books also have Cerundolo as a two-point favorite. William Hill offers Cerundolo 2:0 at 2.1, and that’s the meal ticket here. Sure, they went three sets last time, but that’s unlikely to occur here.
That being said, Cerundolo cruising to a 2:0 win is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Cerundolo winning 2:0 @2.1 @WilliamHill
Musetti – Vacherot: Time 06:30
H2H: 0-0
Lorenzo Musetti had a real shot to win this tournament in 2025, but he ultimately fell to the clay god, Carlos Alcaraz. Musetti took the first set 3-6, but then something happened, and he only managed to win a single game after that first set. While losing to Alcaraz is hardly something that should be held against someone, it certainly has the potential to galvanize him to want to finish the story. Before Musetti can right the wrongs of years past, he has to get past Valentin Vacherot.
Best Bet to Make
Neither man has a tournament title in 2026, but Musetti made the finals at ATP Hong Kong, only to lose in straight sets to Alexander Bublik. This is an easily winnable match for Musetti provided he comes in with a different mindset than he had at Indian Wells, where he was unceremoniously spat out of the tournament by 58th-ranked Marton Fucsovics. Vacherot is playing well enough that I think this match is going to head to a third set.
That being said, Over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Over 2.5 sets @2.4 @Unibet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
