It promises to be an entertaining second day at ATP Indian Wells with a number of intriguing matches on the slate in the Californian desert. As ever, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate, including Jack Draper vs Roberto Bautista Agut and Carlos Alcaraz vs Grigor Dimitrov. But who will advance?
ATP Indian Wells Day 4 Predictions
Luciano Darderi vs Rinky Hijikata
Head-to-head: Darderi 2-0 Hijikata
Luciano Darderi arrives at the Indian Wells Open riding the momentum of an impressive South American clay swing and will be eager to translate that form onto hard courts. The Italian backed up a runner-up finish at the Argentina Open with a title run at the Chile Open, and the slower desert conditions in California could ease his transition away from clay.
Rinky Hijikata, however, faces a daunting matchup. The Australian is 0–2 against Darderi and 0–6 in sets, having fallen to the Italian at both the French Open and the US Open. Although the world No.117 battled through qualifying and edged Francesco Maestrelli in the first round, overturning that history looks like a tall order with the 20th seed arriving full of confidence and a proven edge in the matchup.
Prediction: Darderi in 2
Casper Ruud vs Alexander Shevchenko
Head-to-head: Ruud 1-0 Shevchenko
New father Casper Ruud arrives searching for rhythm after a rare wobble on tour. The Norwegian has dropped his last two matches, including a surprise defeat to qualifier Yibing Wu in Acapulco, and the 13th seed will be desperate to steady the ship against another lower-ranked opponent.
Standing in his way is world is Alexander Shevchenko, who battled past Sho Shimabukuro in three sets to book a rematch with Ruud. The Norwegian leads their head-to-head 1–0 after a straight-sets win in Bastad three years ago, and similar high-bouncing conditions could again favour Ruud’s heavy topspin game.
Prediction: Ruud in 2
Daniil Medvedev vs Alejandro Tabilo
Head-to-head: first meeting
Fresh off his second title of the season in Dubai, Daniil Medvedev arrives with renewed momentum as he pushes to break back into the ATP top ten. After a turbulent 2025, the Russian looks much closer to his stubborn, grinding best again. The two-time finalist begins his campaign with a first-ever meeting against Alejandro Tabilo, who stormed into the second round with a dominant win over Rafael Jodar.
Tabilo has also looked far more composed and confident this season and could trouble Medvedev if the Russian’s level wavers. But if Medvedev brings his trademark baseline discipline, the matchup tilts his way heavily. His relentless consistency and ability to extend rallies should test Tabilo’s patience and could quickly drive up the Chilean’s unforced error count.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3
Taylor Fritz vs Jacob Fearnley
Head-to-head: first meeting
Former champion Taylor Fritz arrives in the desert looking to reset after a couple of near-misses on home soil. The American fell just short in the final at the Dallas Open before a quarterfinal exit at the Delray Beach Open stalled his momentum. Now back at one of his happiest hunting grounds, the world No. 7 will be eager to make a statement run and remind the tour why he belongs firmly among the elite.
Standing in his way is Britain’s Jacob Fearnley, who earned only his second tour-level win of the season with a tidy 6–3, 6–3 victory over Damir Džumhur. It was a welcome confidence boost for the world No. 87, but this first meeting looks like a steep climb. If Fritz finds his rhythm in front of the home crowd, the seventh seed should simply have too much firepower across the board.
Prediction: Fritz in 2
Main photo credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images
