The semifinals at WTA Abu Dhabi provide me with an opportunity to make up for my poor showing in the quarterfinals. I went 1-of-4 on my quarterfinal picks, and I didn’t even get the right person in three of them. I do feel somewhat vindicated by the bet I got right: the over on 22 games in Hailey Baptiste vs Liudmila Samsonova. Here are my choices for this round, and feel free to roast me in the comments.
WTA Abu Dhabi
Baptiste – Alexandrova: Time 06:00
H2H: 0-1
Hailey Baptiste will take on Ekaterina Alexandrova in the early match. Their only previous match was a 2024 round-of-16 affair at WTA Wuhan, which Alexandrova took in straight sets, and only two total games doing so. Alexandrova is off to a 3-3 start in 2026, and she’s also won her last two. Baptiste has a three-match win streak and five in her last six matches. Even in her only loss, Baptiste too Gauff to a third set.
Best Bet to Make
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Alexandrova is a 4-1 favorite on some books, and a 3.78-1.26 average. You can grab Alexandrova 2:0 at 1.77 on 1xBet. I personally think that taking the under on 20 games at 2.1 on 10Bet is the smarter play. The last time these two met, Alexandrova dispatched her 6-1, 6-1, and Baptiste has played a lot of tennis in Abu Dhabi. Alexandrova has only played one match longer than two sets in 2026.
That being said, Under on 20 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Under on 20 games @2.1 @10Bet
Bejlek – Tauson: Time 08:00
H2H: 0-0
Sara Bejlek vs Clara Tauson is our featured match. Bejlek has beaten Sonay Kartal, Jelena Ostapenko, and Ashlyn Krueger, among others, on her route to the semifinal. Tauson has only had to beat Simona Waltert and McCartney Kessler. Tauson is 4-3 so far in 2026, while Sara Bejlek is 6-2. Tauson is the more seasoned player on a hardcourt, but 2025 (23-13) and 2019 (26-3) were her only standout years. The rest is just a numbers game.
Best Bet to Make
Tauson is a 1.5-2.75 favorite on most sites. The average is 1.43-2.77, but you can grab Bejlek for as high as 2.86 on Pinnacle, and Tauson as high as 1.49 on Betfair. You can also get the Dane 2:0 at 2.1 on bet365. Over/under on 21.5 games is close enough for me to think this is what the books see as the max amount of games they’ll play. This is asking a lot of Bejlek, who is a primarily clay court player.
That being said, Tauson winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Tauson winning 2:0 @2.1 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke–USA TODAY Sports
