We will be treated to two blockbuster women’s quarterfinal matches at the Australian Open on Wednesday, with at least one American guaranteed to reach the semifinals. But which one will it be? And what of the other semifinal, a battle between two Grand Slam champions? As always, our writers here at LastWordOnTennis share their thoughts. Predicting these matches are Shane Black, Ateet Shrivastava, Andreas Pelekis, Jordan Reynolds, and Yesh Ginsburg. Who do you think will reach the semifinals?
Australian Open Quarterfinal Predictions
Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina
Shane:
Volume 12 of this underrated rivalry takes place with an Australian Open semifinal spot on the line. Rybakina has looked no short of incredible in Melbourne, and is yet to drop a set in four matches. Dating back to the fall, she may be the most in-form player on tour. Swiatek has also had a brillant start to the year. In fact, this matchup could have been the final and I would have no complaints. In a true toss-up, I’ll side with the bigger server.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3
Ateet:
Iga Swiatek hasn’t played her best tennis this tournament, but she has never been in real danger of losing any of her matches. However, her serving troubles will be punished by Elena Rybakina, who appears to be in much better shape going into this match. If Swiatek’s first serve percentage does not improve, her career Grand Slam dreams will be over for this season.
Prediction: Rybakina in 2
Andreas:
This matchup is always a toss-up, though Rybakina has looked unstoppable all tournament. Swiatek has played well herself, but the Kazakh has the weapons to win on these faster courts–she notably upset Swiatek here in 2023. The more mentally strong player will win, and Rybakina may be a steadier competitor with less pressure on her shoulders.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3
Jordan:
Rybakina ended a run of four consecutive defeats against Swiatek in their last meeting. The Pole has shown slightly more vulnerability in the opening four rounds, but her record shows how capable she is of rising to the biggest occasion. Whether this match is played at day or night could matter, with the latter likely favoring Rybakina more. Overall, I narrowly favor the Kazakhstani slightly to win this with her improved level in the last few months, but it is a toss-up.
Prediction: Rybakina in 3
Yesh:
This is an exceptional rivalry as one of the most powerful players (and biggest servers) on Tour meets another power player who has the best all-around game on Tour. On clay, this is obviously easily Swiatek. On a faster hard court, the Pole has been vulnerable at times against players who can hit bigger than her. I think Rybakina might be able to just outhit her, especially if the roof is closed for this match (no way to know about that yet).
Prediction: Rybakina in 2
Amanda Anisimova vs Jessica Pegula
Shane:
In an all-American showdown, Pegula is undefeated in her career against Anisimova. That said, this will be their first meeting in nearly 18 months. Over that span, Anisimova has raised her ranking over 100 spots and has established herself as one of the top players on the WTA Tour. Pegula played terrific tennis to dispatch Keys in the Round of 16, but something tells me this is Anisimova’s year. She should do well to hit through her countrywoman.
Prediction: Anisimova in 3
Ateet:
Jessica Pegula took out the defending champion, Madison Keys ,in straight sets to reach her fourth Australian Open quarterfinal. Pegula is in great form and playing smart tennis by varying her serves and the trajectory of her groundstrokes. Amanda Anisimova has the game to just hit winners left, right, and center on her day, but she has not shown that level yet, and the head-to-head suggests that Pegula knows how to trouble her.
Prediction: Pegula in 3
Andreas:
Anisimova is impossible to beat on her best day, though streaky and nervous on a rougher day. That will make this matchup a toss-up, because Pegula is one of the most consistent and steady players on the WTA Tour. Pegula had the bigger win this tournament against Madison Keys, and I think her experience on tour might help her win in a close encounter.
Prediction: Pegula in 3
Jordan:
Pegula, as is often the case, slipped under the radar in the opening few rounds, but made broader headlines by knocking out last year’s champion Madison Keys. Anisimova’s progress in the last 12 months was the best in women’s tennis, but I am backing Pegula to win this. The older American’s first serve and return have been excellent in the opening four rounds, which will be crucial in this match. She is also one of the players who can minimise the damage Anisimova does with her cross-court backhand.
Prediction: Pegula in 3
Yesh:
For the last six months at least, Amanda Anisimova has looked like the best woman in the world. In some ways she struggled with nerves in her two Major finals, but she is hitting the ball cleaner, flatter, and harder than everyone else. This might be her biggest test, though, as Pegula is probably the craftiest player on Tour. The older American plays such solid and patient tennis, using depth and angles to frustrate everyone. If Anisimova can hit through Pegula, she can beat anyone. I’m thinking this is Anisimova’s year, and crushing Pegula will be a great way to show the world how.
Prediction: Anisimova in 2
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images
