It’s time for the US Open round of 16. I took last night off to enjoy Offspring, Jimmy Eat World, and New Found Glory, but I am back with more best bets for the women’s singles. I want to thank you for the recent feedback. I followed up with one of you, and I just want to thank you again for the suggestions and the opportunity to grow. If anyone has thoughts they want to share with me, please do so.
WTA U.S. Open
Rybakina – Vondrousova: Time 03:00
H2H: 1-1
Marketa Vondrousova has certainly proven she’s back to her winning ways since she returned to the tour. Her opponent is Elena Rybakina, with whom Vondrousova has a past. The two of them are 1-1 in their two matches, with their latest happening in 2023 in Rome. The current form for both ladies is outstanding. Vondrousova is 7-3 in her last ten matches, and Rybakina is one better at 8-2.
Best Bet to Make
There are several ways to approach this match. I’m not as confident as the books are when it comes to Rybakina and Vondrousova straight up. The books have Rybakina at a 1.5-point advantage. Due to the quality of both ladies and Vondrousova’s overall ability, I am a big fan of taking an overall games bet in this match. I think over 21.5 games is a solid line for this match. The bet loses substantive value if you try to brute force it into existence.
That being said, Over 21.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Over 21.5 games @1.82 @1xBet
Kostyuk – Muchova: Time 17:00
H2H: 0-0
Marta Kostyuk and Karolina Muhova both stormed into the round of 16 with their overall current form. Kostyuk is only 7-3 in her last ten matches, and Muchova is 6-4 in hers. This is right about the time of the tournament when Kostyuk finds herself on the outside looking in. Will Muchova be able to get back to the semifinals, or is this the year that Kostyuk finally gets past the third round? The books certainly have ideas.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Muchova as a steady favorite in this match. It is worth noting that all three of Muchova’s matches have gone to a third set, and Kostyuk has only seen two of her matches do the same. On top of Muchova’s form, she’s also in possession of the better record on the surface at 137-59 overall and 16-8 on the year. Muchova is also six years younger than Kostyuk, but it remains to be seen if she’s able to tap into that particular advantage.
That being said, Muchova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Muchova winning @1.66 @1xBet
Osaka – Gauff: Time 17:00
H2H: 2-3
Naomi Osaka and Coco Gauff are the featured match for this column. This should come as no surprise. Outside of Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatek, Gauff and Osaka easily stand above all the other matches. The two women have met five different times on a hardcourt. Their last match was in the round of 16 in Beijing before Osaka had to retire. Gauff won here in 2023, but she only made it back to the round of 16 in 2024. Osaka not only has one championship here, she has two of them, winning in 2020 and 2018.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Gauff as a strong favorite, and I understand why they think that. It’s worth noting that Gauff and Osaka lost to the same person during their last ten matches, and that person was Victoria Mboko. Gauff would lose one more match, this time to Jessica Paolini, during that ten-game stretch, but that would be the only loss Osaka would suffer during her ten-game stretch. Osaka can beat Osaka, but it’s been since 2021. Give me Gauff straight up.
That being said, Gauff winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Gauff winning @1.55 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports
