Third round action at ATP Toronto will conclude on day six, and an action-packed week has delivered indeed, where the field has started to separate into those finding top gear and those holding on by grit.
With big names falling early and momentum shifting match to match, the margins are slim, and these encounters promise another round of tight battles. As ever, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the slate. But who will book their place in the last 16?
ATP Toronto Day 6 Predictions
Andrey Rublev vs Lorenzo Sonego
Head-to-Head: Rublev 3–2 Sonego
Andrey Rublev’s had a rocky stretch lately but has found some of his timing again this week, making light work of Hugo Gaston in the previous round. Lorenzo Sonego has looked locked in since arriving in Canada, taking out the dangerous Yunchaokete Bu and playing clean, aggressive tennis. Rublev leads the head-to-head 3-2, but comes in with more pressure as he has a lot of points to defend. If Sonego keeps attacking the second serve, he could make it interesting again.
Prediction: Rublev in 3
Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka
Head-to-Head: Fils 1–0 Lehecka
Arthur Fils has made a solid transition to the North American hard courts, backing up his early-season promise with a composed win over Carreno Busta in his first match since the French Open. Jiri Lehecka will be a bigger test for the Frenchman; however, both men hit a heavy ball and like to take the initiative early in rallies. With their shot tolerance and athleticism closely matched, the result could hinge on who finds better rhythm on serve and keeps the unforced errors in check.
Prediction: Fils in 3
Alex de Minaur vs Christopher O’Connell
Head-to-Head: first meeting
Alex de Minaur arrived in Toronto fresh off a title run in Washington and backed it up with a composed performance in his opener. His trademark court coverage and ability to absorb pace continue to wear opponents down. Christoper O’Connell, meanwhile, has pieced together a steady week of his own, navigating tricky matchups with clean ball-striking and resilience from the back of the court. This is their first meeting at this level, though they’ve trained and competed alongside each other for years. Expect long, physical exchanges and a tight battle over who can control tempo and manage unforced errors.
Prediction: de Minaur in 2
Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima
Head-to-Head: Shelton 4–0
Ben Shelton has played with greater urgency this week, backing up his Washington semifinal with a statement win in his opener here. Brandon Nakashima has taken care of business against lower-ranked players, including a composed straight-sets victory over Ethan Quinn in the previous round. But he’s still struggled to break through against higher-tier opposition. He faces an even greater challenge as he hasn’t been able to break Shelton’s dominance in this matchup in four previous meetings. With both serving well, the outcome may hinge on who handles the tight moments more decisively.
Prediction: Shelton in 2
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – Imagn Images
