Sunday’s final at the 2025 Citi Open has arrived in Washington, D.C. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will look for his first title of his career in what should be a riveting match against World No. 13 Alex de Minaur. LWOT previews and predicts the ATP 500 title match.
ATP Washington Final Prediction
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur
Head-to-head: 2-2
As former ATP NextGen stars, these two players first met in 2019 at the NextGen ATP Finals, showcasing their athleticism and speed at a young age. De Minaur won that match, Davidovich Fokina returned the favor in their next two meetings, and de Minaur won their latest meeting 6-1 6-3 in Canada two years ago. Both players have had strong careers, though de Minaur has thrived on the ATP Tour with nine titles and has certainly had the higher ground on Tour.
Davidovich Fokina has played some of his best career tennis this week. His quarterfinal win over Taylor Fritz concluded after 1 a.m., a match that he trailed deep into the third set. In his 6-2 7-5 semifinal win over Ben Shelton on Saturday, he rebounded and had to fight off a vocal crowd after Shelton got a late push in the match during the second set. The Spaniard has been particulary strong on the forehand wing this week.
De Minaur made the final of this tournament seven years ago as a teenager, falling to Alexander Zverev in the title match. He’s become more aggressive on court and strengthened his serve since then, something that will thrive on these faster courts. The Aussie has only dropped one set all week, claiming a brutal three-set win over Jiri Lehecka in the third round. He defeated Corentin Moutet in the semifinals 6-4 6-3, who had just come off an upset sh0ck over Daniil Medvedev.
It’s easy to pick de Minaur as the favorite with his ATP final experience, but Davidovich Fokina is long overdue for an ATP title. The Spaniard is 0-3 in ATP finals, and some of the losses have been brutal. He’s had a strong 2025 season, nearing a career high ranking and reaching two finals, but he faced debilitating pressure in both of those final matches. With the Spaniard playing clean tennis, and managing the pressure as an underdog in two successive matches, he may be able to play more freely being an underdog against the Aussie.
Ultimately, de Minaur should be hoisting the trophy on Sunday afternoon. The Aussie is one of the game’s top returners, and he’ll be able to capitalize on Davidovich Fokina’s often inconsistent serve. While the Spaniard has served well this week, that stroke is often the first to crumble under pressure. De Minaur is also used to these conditions, and can grind out a player surely to be fatigued after a long week. Davidovich Fokina will have to play consistent tennis, but also shorten rallies as much as possible in order to avoid any long points that will let De Minaur settle in.
Prediction: De Minaur in 3
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
