The ATP Washington Open is back in action today for the second round. The second round features numerous high-quality matchups, including the headliner of this article: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Cameron Norrie. Here are my best bets for the second round of action at ATP Washington. Let me know whether you agree in the comment section.
ATP Washington Open
Marozsan – Diallo: Time 16:00
H2H: 0-1
The first time that Fabian Marozsan played Gabriel Diallo was earlier this year at the Davis Cup. Diallo took that match in straight sets, barely breaking a sweat, as he lost only four total games that day. The match was only, and I bring that up because Marozsan lost. Not only is Marozsan a career clay player, but Diallo is only 17-15 lifetime on clay. Perhaps Marozsan can return the favor now that he gets Diallo on Diallo’s preferred surface. Marozsan is 56-32 on hardcourt, which isn’t too bad when you compare it to Diallo’s 80-44 overall record on hardcourt.
Best Bet to Make
Diallo is right on the line of usability at 1.5 straight on Bet365. While you can find outlets like Betfair that have Marozsan at 1.19, he remains the underdog, as Diallo is priced at 1.11 on the same site. That’s the only time that Marozsan comes close to Diallo with the line. Most other sites have him at least a full point behind, if not more. This makes sense because Diallo already has one tournament victory this year, and a very quick victory over Marozsan on his opponent’s preferred surface. Diallo’s tournament victory was June 15th, and he’s been in a quarterfinal and round of 16 since. He’s also coming off taking Taylor Fritz to the limit at Wimbledon, so momentum is really riding with Diallo.
That being said, Diallo winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Diallo winning @1.5 @Bet365
Arnaldi – Sonego: Time 16:00
H2H: 0-0
This will be the first match between Matteo Arnaldi and Lorenzo Sonego. There are several superficial comparisons between the two men, as well. Both men have had similar overall years. Arnaldi is 16-15 overall and Sonego is 14-17 overall. Both men are 7-6 overall on hardcourt in 2025. Hell, you can even get both men for 1.90 on 1xBet, but that’s beside the point. Neither Arnaldi nor Sonego has ever played at Washington before. Of the two of them, Sonego is having the more consistently positive year. Sonego has thrived at two of three majors thus far in 2025, making one quarterfinal and one round of 16.
Best Bet to Make
Sonego is the slight favorite for a fairly solid reason, and that is his recent play. Coming off a quality showing at Wimbledon, Sonego has built himself confidence after a poor showing at Roland-Garros, which had to hurt his pride as a primarily clay player. Many sites see this as a push, and I get why they think that. Even in his wins, Arnaldi has struggled. Furthermore, he hasn’t been outstanding on hardcourt since 2020 when he was 16-5. Arnaldi might be having the better year, but Sonego wins the match in three.
That being said, Sonego winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sonego winning @1.90 @1xBet
Norrie – Musetti: Time 16:00
H2H: 0-2
Cameron Norrie hasn’t had much luck against Lorenzo Musetti. While the two have only met on clay, Musetti took both matches in three sets, and both of them were in 2023. The last time Norrie played in Washington was 2021, and he finished in the round of 16. Both men are playing fantastic tennis right now, but Musetti is having a slightly better go of it right now. Setting Wimbledon aside, Musetti had been in the semifinals of the four previous tournaments, including one finals loss at Monte Carlo. Had it not been for Carlos Alcaraz, Musetti may have won three of those tournaments.
Best Bet to Make
Norrie last made a semifinal in May, and that was at Geneva. Outside of that, Norrie hasn’t advanced beyond the quarterfinals this year. Sure, most of Musetti’s success has come on clay, but it’s not like he’s dogwater on a hardcourt. I will say that Norrie is by far the more accomplished player on the hardcourt, as he’s 235-118 overall. But before you get any bright ideas about betting on him because of that, he’s 7-8 this year, 14-12 in the last two years, and 28-24 in the last three years. He just isn’t the same hardcourt player he was in 2022.
That being said, Musetti winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Musetti winning @1.69 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
