We are in for two blockbuster men’s semifinal matches on Friday at the French Open. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz will face challenger Lorenzo Musetti, while all eyeballs will be on the matchup between Novak Djokovic and World #1 Jannik Sinner, as the all-time great faces his toughest challenger from this generation. Who do you think will win? Our writers share their thoughts. Predicting these matches are Jordan Reynolds, Tope Oke, Ilemona Onekutu, Shane Black, and Yesh Ginsburg.
French Open Semifinal Predictions
Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti
Jordan:
Alcaraz is a challenging matchup for Musetti. Not just because the Spaniard is the tournament favorite, but he possesses a game that suits stifling his creativity. Musetti’s terrific clay-court game means his chances cannot be fully ruled out, but I think the defending champion has what it takes to overcome this challenge.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Tope:
This is worthy of being the championship match as it’s what Lorenzo Musetti deserves after a scintillating clay season–but then you have to beat the best to be the best. Even though his lone victory over Alcaraz in seven attempts was on clay, lightning will not strike twice. This is literally the Spaniard’s favorite stage.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4
Ilemona:
Musetti’s graceful shotmaking comes up against Alcaraz’s explosive power. The Italian’s crafty slices and one-handed backhand could trouble Alcaraz early, but the Spaniard’s relentless intensity and heavier topspin usually wear him down. If Musetti serves well, he might push this to a tiebreak early on but Alcaraz’s big-match edge should prevail in the end. Expect dazzling rallies, but also a few momentum swings before the Spaniard closes it out.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Shane
Musetti has quietly become one of the best clay-court players on tour. That said, he struggles against the top tier of the sport. Alcaraz is running too hot for me to see any path to victory for the Italian.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Yesh:
Alcaraz has looked vulnerable at times this tournament, but at this stage on this court he’s just two good. There are maybe three men on earth capable of beating him here (two of them are playing in the other semifinal), and Musetti just isn’t one of them.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner
Jordan:
Djokovic’s victory against Alexander Zverev showed the level he can still play at. The Serbian probably also feels he has a better chance against Sinner on clay than hard courts. But I do not see the world No. 1 losing this match. He has won his last four matches against Djokovic (including the Six Kings Slam) and his improvements on clay have been significant. Sinner is backed to make a statement by winning comfortably.
Prediction: Sinner in 3
Tope:
Right from ths onset in Paris, there were only two players who could stop the rampaging Sinner from getting to championship point. Alcaraz–who is in the other semifinal–and the legendary Serb, who is on the brink of amplifying his legacy as the sport’s greatest. Coin toss: I’m going with Djokovic’s side.
Prediction: Djokovic in 5
Ilemona:
Sinner arrives with confidence, having won their last three meetings—including last year’s Australian Open semifinal. His powerful baseline game and perfect tournament run (0 sets dropped) pose a serious threat. Yet Djokovic’s legendary resilience and tactical mastery make this far from done. While the Italian has the recent edge, Djokovic’s 51-5 major semifinal record warns against counting him out. Expect fireworks and possibly a drawn out battle if the Serb’s body holds out.
Prediction: Djokovic in 5
Shane
Sinner is playing utterly sensational tennis. He has yet to drop a set in Paris and has looked unplayable since returning from his suspension. However, Djokovic is playing arguably his best tennis since the 2024 Olympics and can never be counted out. The 24-time Grand Slam champ will have to bring variety to the court on Friday; he will not win a pure baseline battle (which is crazy to say). If his drop shot is as good as it was against Zverev, he has a chance.
Prediction: Sinner in 4
Yesh:
Jannik Sinner is ruthlessly efficient. And while he has had lots of recent success against Djokovic, he is exactly the type of palyer the Serb is built to overwhelm. As long as Djokovic stays on defense and keeps the ball deep, he should outlast Sinner in the baseline rallies. This court was the site of arguably his career’s greatest triump last summer. I expect him to play free and untroubled this summer.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
