The WTA Italian Open has been one of the better tournaments of the year. Someone will win their first tournament in this final, and it’s either Coco Gauff or Jasmine Paolini. Here are my best bets for this final. Let me know down in the comments if you agree. Given this isn’t a prediction column, I will show solid bets for both competitors along with a brief analysis. You can check out our predictions for more information.
WTA Italian Open Final
Gauff – Paolini: Time 12:00
H2H: 2-1
Jasmine Paolini is having a banner year. The only thing she doesn’t have this year is a tournament win. While she’s 1-2 against Coco Gauff, it’s worth noting that the win was earlier this year in Stuttgart and was their only meeting on clay, Paolini’s preferred surface. Never mind the fact that Paolini is an Italian playing in the final of the Italian Open; she’s already a crowd favorite and a top ten player in the world. She was able to beat Gauff by playing extremely aggressively and pouncing on Gauff when she made mistakes, particularly while serving. With the home crowd behind her and playing some of her best tennis, Paolini is going to be a tough out for anyone.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Gauff as a favorite, but it’s close. If you’re looking to bet on Paolini, it seems wiser to take her straight on. There’s tremendous value in playing it straight. Some books offer a value above 2.8, so there’s no reason to lay anything risky like a correct score bet. Even if you were thinking of betting the over-under on games played, the value you get for picking correctly is almost a full point lower than picking a winner. Paolini’s recent win, coupled with her extended experience on clay, are more than enough reasons to pick her, but throw in her recent form, and Gauff is going to have to play her best.
That being said, Paolini winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Paolini winning @2.83 @Pinnacle
Gauff – Paolini: Time 12:00
H2H: 0-2
Coco Gauff only has two losses on clay in 2025, and one of them is to Jasmine Paolini. Gauff simply didn’t play her best that day. Her serve let her down; she looked unsure and was unable to meet the match’s biggest moments when they came. That was a quarterfinal back then, and if today is any indicator, she’s more than ready for the big moments in Rome. Gauff didn’t play her best against Qinwen Zheng, but she made enough plays when it mattered and when they had to be made. The things Gauff learned in defeat at Stuttgart turned Rome into a victory. Now she has a chance to win her first tournament of the year, and she doesn’t have to go through Aryna Sabalenka.
Best Bet to Make
Coco Gauff is the favorite in this match, and I cautiously agree. She’s 2-1 against Paolini, but her lone loss came on a clay court like Rome. It also came last month, so it’s not like Gauff’s form has changed remarkably in two tournaments. Gauff generally performs when she is the favorite in 2025. She does have six losses on the year as a favorite with only seven total losses, but when you’re No. 3 in the world, you’re going to be the favorite more often than not. She also won 18 matches as the favorite and three as an underdog.
That being said, Gauff winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Gauff winning @1.51 @Betfair
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
