The WTA Italian Open has reached the quarterfinal stage, and the matches are only improving in quality. The featured match is Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva, but we will also be looking at the Qinwen Zheng vs Aryna Sabalenka match as well as Diane Shnaider vs Jasmine Paolini. Let me know in the comments if you agree with our picks. You can check out the LWOS Prediction column by Ateet Shrivastava if you need an in-depth look at which way to lean.
WTA Italian Open Quarterfinal
Paolini – Shnaider: Time 13:00
H2H: 1-0
Jasmine Paolini and Diane Shnaider only have one previous meeting, and it was at the 2024 Australian Open. Paolini won the match in straight sets. This is the fourth tournament in a row in which Shnaider has reached at least the Round of 16, but Rome marks the only time she advanced past that round into the quarterfinals. With a spot in the semifinal on the line, she will have to show something she hasn’t shown in 2025 to beat Paolini. This would mark the third tournament of 2025 where Paolini has reached the semifinals if she can beat Shnaider.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Paolini as a pretty decent favorite, and I agree. When you look at Paolini’s recent losses, they are coming to talent like Aryna Sabalenka. Similarly, it’s only the top players in the WTA that are handing losses to Shnaider, but she hasn’t found a way to get over the hump like Paolini has. Shnaider has only taken two matches on clay to a third set in 2025. She won one of those and lost one of those, but most of her affairs have been straight sets, win or lose.
That being said, Paolini winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Paolini winning @1.74 @BetFair
Sabalenka – Zheng: Time 11:00
H2H: 6-0
Aryna Sabalenka is a force to be reckoned with in women’s tennis. If she wins this tournament, she will have matched her entire win total for 2024. She is missing a Major victory, but she has three wins on the year, looking to make it four. Qinwen Zheng has been here before. In fact, she’s been here six times before, and she has zero wins in those six attempts. If there’s a way to find a silver lining in that statistic, none of their matches have been on clay like she will face in Rome. The problem with that is Sabalenka already has one claycourt tournament victory and two claycourt final appearances.
Best Bet to Make
Aryna Sabalenka is a massive favorite for a reason. She doesn’t lose to Qinwen Zheng, and she doesn’t run into problems trying to beat her. Only one of their six matches has gone to a third set. Only four sets in their entire match history have been 6-4 or higher. The vast majority are either 6-2 or 6-3 in favor of Sabalenka. The way to make money on this match is to bet Sabalenka to win 2:0, as betting her straight gives you much worse odds. At 1.8, you can nearly double your money while betting Sabalenka straight offers odds below 1.3 on most sites.
That being said, Sabalenka winning two sets to nul is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sabalenka winning 2:0 @1.80 @Bet365
Gauff – Andreeva: Time 11:00
H2H: 3-0
Coco Gauff has been one of the world’s best since the start of 2025, but she doesn’t have a tournament victory yet. She came close in Madrid, but she ran into the buzzsaw that is Aryna Sabalenka, and went down in straight sets. While Sabalenka is still in this tournament, that’s a thought for a different day, as her next opponent will be Mirra Andreeva. Andreeva is 0-3 against Gauff, and two of those matches were on clay, one of them was in 2025 at the aforementioned Madrid. Andreeva has two tournament victories in 2025, but she hasn’t made it past the quarterfinal stage of any claycourt tournament this year.
Best Prop Bet to Make
The books have Gauff as an underdog and I do not agree. Not only is she 3-0 against Andreeva, but she had a convincing win over her on a claycourt not even a month ago. When you look at their head-to-head stats, you get the impression that Gauff spent their first set trying to figure Andreeva out, and has spent every subsequent set easily dismissing her. Gauff feels like she’s playing the best she’s been playing in quite some time, and while Andreeva is playing well, she’s certainly not operating on a level to where these lines make sense to me.
That being said, Gauff winning is a value bet, for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Gauff winning @2.08 @UniBet
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
