The WTA Italian Open rolls on, and the action gets more intense. The action over the last couple of days has been fairly good. Will the luck hold? If you like today’s picks, let me know in the comments below.
WTA Italian Open
Andreescu – Vekic: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-1
Bianca Andreescu and Donna Vekic have only met once before at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Vekic won that meeting in straight sets, and it was on clay like their match in Rome. Neither lady is above .500 on the year. Vekic is 7-11 on the year, and Andreescu is 2-3. It’s hard to say whether or not their time spent playing in 2025 has been a net positive or a net negative, as both are 4-6 in their last ten matches. The names Vekic beat are probably a little better than the names beaten by Andreescu, but that’s subject to opinion.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Vekic as the favorite, and it’s likely to do with world rankings. As stated above, neither lady has played much this year, and it hasn’t been very well when they have. While you can get Andreescu for as much as 2.20, the smart money is on the higher-ranked Vekic. Andreescu is less experienced and more of a hardcourt player. While Vekic is also a better hardcourt player, she has a mountain of experience overall, nearly double Andreescu’s.
That being said, Vekic winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Vekic winning @1.73 @Bet365
Stearns – Kalinkskaya: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-1
Peyton Stearns is 0-1 against Anna Kalinskaya. Their only match was a three-set affair on hardcourt at the WTA Beijing Open, which saw Stearns retire due to injury in the fifth game of set three. Stearns’ best appearance in 2023 is a Round of 16 finish in Madrid right before Rome, so she will be looking to build off that success. Kalinskaya simply cannot find her groove in 2025, and she’s 7-9 on the year as a result. If she’s going to get her year going in Rome, it’s going to have to come against type.
Best Bet to Make
The books largely see this as a push because both ladies have done so poorly this year, as well as in the lead-up to this match. I actually see Kalinskaya as the favorite in this match. She’s had a more consistent 2025 and has found a way to advance in many of her tournaments. Stearns has only recently found a way to advance. Fortunately for those wanting to role with Kalinskaya, she has nearly the same value at 1.91 as Stearns does at 2.00. Why waste time betting on the poorly performing underdog when you can get the same value on the favorite?
That being said, Kalinskaya winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kalinskaya winning @1.91 @Betfair
Pavlyuchenkova – Kenin: Time 11:00
H2H: 1-2
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is 1-2 against Sofia Kenin, though she did win their last meeting earlier this year at Abu Dhabi. Given that the two losses occurred back in 2019, Pavlyuchenkova would like to set a new tone for their rivalry. Pavlyuchenkova has a big fight on her hands as Kenin has done really well this year, and she’s coming off a finals loss to Jessica Pegula at Charleston. Given that her only losses in her last ten matches came at the hands of Pegula, Coco Gauff, and Anastasia Potapova, she’s going to be the one to beat in this match.
Best Prop Bet to Make
Kenin has been a force in 2025. She has three times as many wins at 18 as Pavlyuchenkova does at six. That said, Pavlyuchenkova knows she can beat Kenin, which she did earlier this year at Abu Dhabi. She also knows how to push the limits, even as a giant underdog. Earlier this year, she took Aryna Sabalenka to three sets as a nearly 8-point underdog. Still, given Kenin’s recent run combined with her 2025 success, makes me think she’s going to take this match in three sets.
That being said, Kenin winning is a value bet, for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kenin winning @1.68 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
