The WTA Italian Open rolls on, and the action gets more intense. The action over the last couple of days has been fairly good. Will the luck hold? If you like today’s picks, let me know in the comments below.
WTA Italian Open
Danilovic – Zheng: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-1
Olga Danilovic and Qinwen Zheng make for an interesting match on clay. Zheng took their only meeting on a hardcourt at the 2024 United Cup. Danilovic is much better on clay than she is on a hardcourt. Danilovic is 147-61 on clay, while Qinwen Zheng checks in at 83-26 on clay. Danilovic’s current form could be the x-factor in this match. She’s 11-2 on clay in 2025, Zheng is only 2-2. Danilovic is also having a better year at 15-7 to Zheng’s 9-7.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Zheng as the favorite in this match, but I’m not sure I agree with their logic. Not only is Danilovic 8-2 in her last ten matches, but she also made the finals of the Rouen Open the last week of April. Zheng is 6-4 in her last ten matches and has yet to make the finals of any tournament this year. Zheng is always going to be tough and is the smarter play, but Danilovic’s playing well and playing on her preferred surface, I think she’s game for an upset.
That being said, Danilovic winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Danilovic winning @2.60 @Unibet
Kostyuk – Kasatkina: Time 11:00
H2H: 2-4
Darya Kasatkina and Marta Kostyuk meet again for the seventh time. Kasatkina has had the better of the series at 4-2, but it’s Kostyuk who had the victory in their only other match on clay. Both ladies are fairly adept on clay, but Kasatkina has more experience at 131-56 to Kostyuk’s 77-37. Kostyuk is 7-3 over her last ten matches, and is playing better tennis than Kasatkina, who is 4-6 over her last ten.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Kostyuk as a slight favorite, and I agree. She’s playing better tennis lately and is doing better in 2025. She’s 15-10 on the year while Kasatkina is only 11-10. Even though Kasatkina has shown that she’s usually up to the challenge against Kostyuk, it’s Kostyuk who has all the momentum right now. She also has really good odds, and you can make a decent chunk picking her as the favorite.
That being said, Kostyuk winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kostyuk winning @1.81 @Pinnacle
Alexandrova – Raducanu: Time 11:00
H2H: 1-1
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Emma Raducanu will meet for the third time, with the series knotted at one apiece. Alexandrova is entering the match as the hotter player in 2025, but Raducanu has turned it around lately. Alexandrova is 7-3 and Raducanu is 6-4 in their last ten matches, but Raducanu has played three sets in three of her last four matches. Alexandrova has made at least the semifinals of her last two tournaments, looking to make it three in a row.
Best Prop Bet to Make
The books think Alexandrova is going to win, and I agree wholeheartedly. Not only is Alexandrova playing about as well as you can possibly play right now, but Raducanu has had a very up-and-down year. The furthest Raducanu has made it this year is the quarterfinals at Miami, so expecting her to take down Alexandrova might be a bit much for her at this point. There’s also value to be had in picking Alexandrova.
That being said, Alexandrova winning is a value bet, for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexandrova winning @1.73 @Betway
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
