It’s time for the final of the WTA Madrid Open, and the match is Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff. The world’s No. 1-ranked player vs the world’s No. 4-ranked player, with Gauff almost certain to go up after this tournament. Here are my best bets for this match. Let me know in the comments how you think this match will play out.
WTA Madrid Open Final
Sabalenka – Gauff: Time 18:30
H2H: 4-5
Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka meet for the tenth time in Madrid. Gauff has won five of their previous nine meetings, including the only match they played on clay. The last time they met in a final was the 2023 US Open, with Gauff winning two sets to one. Sabalenka returned the favor when they met in the semifinal of the Australian Open in 2024.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Sabalenka as the favorite in this match, but I don’t agree. Gauff is playing with a particular kind of fire in this tournament. Her win over Swiatek wasn’t just a turning point in the rivalry between those two, it was an absolute statement about where both ladies are at this point in their careers. Gauff knows she can play with the best, and she’s been playing like it. Now is her chance to bring it home.
That being said, Gauff winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Gauff winning @2.12 @Pinnacle
Sabalenka – Gauff: Time 18:30
H2H: 4-5
Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff might have the most competitive rivalry among the world’s top five players. Gauff has won five of their nine meetings, including a victory over Sabalenka at the US Open. Sabalenka returned the favor in a semifinal match en route to her victory at the 2024 Australian Open to begin the next year. Sabalenka is currently 9-1 in her last ten matches. Gauff isn’t too far behind at 8-2 in her last ten. That said, Sabalenka is 3-2 vs Gauff in her last five matches.
Best Prop Bet to Make
If you’re going to bet on this game, it’s wiser to take the over/under on total games played. Given the quality of tennis both ladies have displayed as of late, combined with their back-and-forth rivalry, betting on a competitive game is wiser than betting on the correct score. Our own Liam McBride has Gauff winning in three sets.
That being said, Over 21.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Over 21.5 games @1.86 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
