ATP Masters 1000 Madrid final
Ruud – Draper: 04.05.2025 18:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Casper Ruud has won five straight matches. The Norwegian won all five matches in straight sets this week in Madrid. Ruud defeated Fritz in the 1/8-Finals 7-5 6-4. He was a better player throughout the whole match. In the quarterfinals, he defeated Medvedev in straight sets. Ruud was great under pressure, saving both breakpoints he offered. Today, Cerundolo put up a big fight against Ruud in the semifinals, but he couldn’t handle the pressure. Ruud won 6-4 7-5, saving fifteen out of eighteen breakpoints. He was break down in both sets, but turned them around. Last season in Madrid, Ruud reached the fourth round, losing against Auger-Aliassime in straight sets.
Jack Draper has won five straight matches. Draper won the opening match against Griekspoor this week in Madrid in straight sets. He offered and saved only one breakpoint. Berrettini retired against Draper in the third round after losing the opening set 6-7. In the quarterfinals, Arnaldi had no answer for the Brit’s game. Draper was relentless on his serve, not offering any breakpoints. Today, in the semifinals, the Brit defeated Musetti in straight sets. He was a better player from the beginning until the end.
Best Bets to Make
Main Bet
According to the bookies, Draper is the slight favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. Ruud is one of the best clay-court players in the world. On the other hand, Draper has been one of the most consistent players on hard courts for the last couple of months. However, he never had any success on clay courts. Last season, Draper won only four clay-court matches. We expect Ruud to put up a big fight and keep this match close.
That being said, Ruud covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Casper Ruud +2.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Second Bet
We strongly believe Ruud’s clay experience will be crucial in this match. He has a better forehand than Draper, and we believe he will be a better player tomorrow. If you love to take risks, there is a value bet on Ruud winning the match.
That being said, Ruud winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Casper Ruud winning @2.75 @bet365
Third Bet
Ruud played ten sets this week in Madrid and never got to a tiebreak. On the other hand, Berrettini has played nine sets and played two tiebreaks. The serve will not make much of a difference in this final. We expect many break chances and many breaks.
That being said, no tiebreaks in the match is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: under 0.5 tiebreaks @1.63 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
